Critical environmental factors affecting mountain geohazards in a warming climate in Southwest China

IF 6.4 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
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Abstract

Environmental factors are essential input variables for susceptibility assessment models of mountain geohazards. However, the existing literature provides a limited understanding of the relative contribution of these factors to the occurrence of geohazards with a warming climate, posing tremendous challenges for risk management in mountainous areas. Ya'an city is susceptible to hazards because of its steep terrain, abundant precipitation and active seismic activity. In this regard, we utilise the GeoDetector model to extract critical environmental factors affecting the spatial patterns of mountain geohazards (i.e., landslide, debris flow and rockfall) in Southwest China. The analysis indicates that the factors with the highest explanatory power for the spatial distribution of landslides, debris flows, and rockfalls are soil property, extreme precipitation and extreme temperature, respectively. Notably, we revealed the synergistic effects among factors given their larger q-value than individual ones. We further explored the responses of mountain geohazards to climate change, including the rising temperature and precipitation, because the frequent occurrence of mountain geohazards is closely related to a warming climate. The variation in snow water equivalent caused by antecedent snowfall and snowdrifts acts as a crucial indicator for geohazards, highlighting the significance of snow and wind observations in meteorological nowcasting and disaster prewarning. We disclose the phenomenon of the geohazard hysteresis to the precipitation peak resulting from the top–down (i.e., precipitation-runoff and surface-deep soil moisture) peak shifts. Our work is expected to enhance the precision of susceptibility assessment models and the reliability of short-term forecasts for mountain geohazards.

气候变暖条件下影响中国西南地区山地地质灾害的关键环境因素
环境因素是山区地质灾害易感性评估模型的重要输入变量。然而,现有文献对这些因素在气候变暖的情况下对地质灾害发生的相对贡献了解有限,这给山区的风险管理带来了巨大挑战。雅安市因其陡峭的地形、丰富的降水和活跃的地震活动而容易受到灾害的影响。为此,我们利用 GeoDetector 模型提取了影响中国西南地区山区地质灾害(即滑坡、泥石流和落石)空间格局的关键环境因素。分析表明,对滑坡、泥石流和落石空间分布解释力最强的因素分别是土壤性质、极端降水和极端温度。值得注意的是,由于各因子的 q 值大于单个因子,我们发现了各因子之间的协同效应。我们进一步探讨了山区地质灾害对气候变化的响应,包括气温和降水的上升,因为山区地质灾害的频繁发生与气候变暖密切相关。前降雪和雪堆造成的雪水当量变化是地质灾害的重要指标,突出了风雪观测在气象预报和灾害预警中的重要意义。我们揭示了自上而下(即降水径流和地表深层土壤水分)峰值移动导致的降水峰值地质灾害滞后现象。我们的工作有望提高山区地质灾害易感性评估模型的精度和短期预报的可靠性。
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来源期刊
Advances in Climate Change Research
Advances in Climate Change Research Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science
CiteScore
9.80
自引率
4.10%
发文量
424
审稿时长
107 days
期刊介绍: Advances in Climate Change Research publishes scientific research and analyses on climate change and the interactions of climate change with society. This journal encompasses basic science and economic, social, and policy research, including studies on mitigation and adaptation to climate change. Advances in Climate Change Research attempts to promote research in climate change and provide an impetus for the application of research achievements in numerous aspects, such as socioeconomic sustainable development, responses to the adaptation and mitigation of climate change, diplomatic negotiations of climate and environment policies, and the protection and exploitation of natural resources.
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