Jin-Lin Zha , Ting Chuan , Yuan Qiu , Jian Wu , De-Ming Zhao , Wen-Xuan Fan , Yan-Jun Lyu , Hui-Ping Jiang , Kai-Qiang Deng , Miguel Andres-Martin , Cesar Azorin-Molina , Deliang Chen
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Wind energy development in Central Asia can help alleviate drought and fragile ecosystems. Nevertheless, current studies mainly used the global climate models (GCMs) to project wind speed and energy. The simulated biases in GCMs remain prominent, which induce a large uncertainty in the projected results. To reduce the uncertainties of projected near-surface wind speed (NSW) and better serve the wind energy development in Central Asia, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with bias-corrected GCMs was employed. Compared with the outputs of GCMs, dynamical downscaling acquired using the WRF model can better capture the high- and low-value centres of NSWS, especially those of Central Asia's mountains. Meanwhile, the simulated NSWS bias was also reduced. For future changes in wind speed and wind energy, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario, NSWS during 2031–2050 is projected to decrease compared with that in 1986–2005. The magnitude of NSWS reduction during 2031–2050 will reach 0.1 m s−1, and the maximum reduction is projected to occur over the central and western regions (>0.2 m s−1). Furthermore, future wind power density (WPD) can reveal nonstationarity and strong volatility, although a downward trend is expected during 2031–2050. In addition, the higher frequency of wind speeds at the turbine hub height exceeding 3.0 m s−1 can render the plain regions more suitable for wind energy development than the mountains from 2031 to 2050. This study can serve as a guide in gaining insights into future changes in wind energy across Central Asia and provide a scientific basis for decision makers in the formulation of policies for addressing climate change.
期刊介绍:
Advances in Climate Change Research publishes scientific research and analyses on climate change and the interactions of climate change with society. This journal encompasses basic science and economic, social, and policy research, including studies on mitigation and adaptation to climate change.
Advances in Climate Change Research attempts to promote research in climate change and provide an impetus for the application of research achievements in numerous aspects, such as socioeconomic sustainable development, responses to the adaptation and mitigation of climate change, diplomatic negotiations of climate and environment policies, and the protection and exploitation of natural resources.