Assessing drought in Turkish basins through satellite observations

Abstract

Drought occurs when there is a sustained decrease in rainfall over an extended period, impacting the socio-cultural and environmental aspects of humans and other living beings. The geographic distribution and timing of droughts play a crucial role in drought management and mitigation strategies. Identifying and predicting the onset of droughts in specific regions, especially in watershed areas, is a primary concern in the field of hydrology. This study focuses on how the spatiotemporal patterns of drought are developing in Turkish Basins using detailed data on Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS), precipitation, and temperature at the pixel level. GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment), PERSIANN (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks), and WorldClim (World Climate) data sets are employed to assess long-term changes of drought on a basin-scale. Spatial analyses are conducted in a Geographic Information System (GIS) environment for the derivation of basinal monthly mean, minimum, and maximum statistics of TWS, precipitation, and temperature anomalies within Turkish Basins. Time series analyses are implemented to investigate the temporal evolution of droughts in these basins, for the basinal monthly mean, minimum, and maximum statistics obtained. The Mann–Kendall trend test and Pettitt change point detection tests are used to assess the statistical significance of the calculated trends and to expose the existence of any change point therein, respectively. The findings of the study indicate that Turkiye faces a significant risk of drought development in nearly all its basins, particularly after 2016. The GRACE dataset provides realistic insights into the temporal behaviour of hydrological droughts. PERSIANN is effective in identifying years with extreme meteorological conditions, and the standardized precipitation index (SPI) shows similar effectiveness, while they are ineffective in exposing significant trends due to the nature of the precipitation data. WorldClim data proves insufficient for modelling the temporal behaviour of droughts in these basins.