Cognitive model of an organization to counter negative security environment tendencies aimed at violating the sustainable development of the selected target country

Abstract

A simplified cognitive model of the organization of counteracting negative trends in the military-political and geopolitical situation (security environment) on the part of unfriendly states is presented, which in the future can develop into threats of a military nature or disrupt the sustainable development of the target state, and even provoke armed aggression against it. The developed cognitive model of the organization of early countermeasures against negative trends in the security environment on the part of unfriendly states is based on known technologies of cognitive and mathematical modeling, expert evaluation, forecasting and analysis of hierarchies. The cognitive model allows the system of ensuring national security to solve the problem of early detection of negative phenomena and trends that may later turn it into a state of chaos. A feature of the cognitive model is the identification of groups of main and mediated factors that can increase the negative trend under consideration, assessment of the risk levels of factors, with the help of which the assessment (forecasting) of integral levels of risks of disruption of the sustainable development of the state, created in selected areas of national security by a specific negative trend, is carried out . The cognitive model provides expert forecasting of the threshold level of the risk of the introduction of a crisis state and, in the event of its achievement in at least one area, the introduction of an anti-crisis management regime in this area of ​​national security. In other cases, thanks to the implemented feedback, the model implements a controlled reduction of the impact of the identified negative trends in the security environment to the level defined by the regulations in the legal space of the target state.