Predicting Spatiotemporal Forest Cover Dynamics Using the CA-Markov Model in the Chuta Gorgis Forest between 1983 and 2050

Abstract

Objective: The objective of this study was to analyze spatio-temporal forest cover dynamics in the Chuta Gorgis forest in Gimbi District, Oromia Regional State, West Ethiopia over the last 40 years and predict future changes. Methods: Satellite image acquisition and field observation were employed as data collection techniques. Post-classification comparison change detection methods were utilized for forest cover change analysis. Landsat images from 1983, 1991, and 2023 were used to analyze forest cover changes and determine the types of land cover to which the forest changed. CA-Markov was employed to model future changes in forest cover. Results: The study revealed significant land use and land cover (LULC) changes in the study area, particularly in forest cover. From 1983 to 2023, the area experienced a decline in forest cover from 499 ha to 417 ha. Agricultural activity was identified as a major contributor to environmental pressure and forest cover change. This rapid alteration of forest cover led to various environmental issues, including soil erosion, loss of soil fertility, biodiversity loss, runoff, and flooding. The predicted forest cover change for the year 2050 indicates further decline, with forest cover diminishing to 386 ha. Conclusion: The findings underscore the urgent need for effective planning to protect the existing forest from further degradation. The study highlights the adverse impact of forest cover change on the livelihoods of the rural community in the study area, resulting in low agricultural productivity and socioeconomic challenges. Corrective measures, informed by the study’s findings, are recommended to mitigate the negative consequences of forest cover change and promote sustainable land management practices in the region.