Navigating the Dynamics of Brent Crude Oil Prices: Factors, Trends, and Insights

IF 2.2 4区地球科学 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Acta Montanistica Slovaca Pub Date : 2024-07-15 DOI:10.46544/ams.v29i1.08

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Accurate Brent Crude Oil price prediction is essential for informed decision-making and risk control in the global energy market. This paper examines the dynamics of Brent Crude Oil prices over the previous 35 years, utilizing predictive modelling techniques to project future prices and analyzing historical trends and relationships with the GDPs of major economies. The statistical methods used in this paper include the moving average and Pearson correlation coefficient. While correlation studies show significant positive links between Brent Crude Oil prices and the GDPs of major economies like China, Saudi Arabia, Europe, Russia, and the United States, historical data analysis reveals large price volatility. Highly accurate price forecasting using LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) modelling approaches provides detailed risk management and decision-making information in the global energy market. The application of the Neural Network and the ARIMA model shows an increase in the price of Brent crude oil in the next year, 2024. Identifying the importance of the Brent crude oil price forecast and its effect on the international market is highly needed. This paper thus might help to increase economic growth. These results highlight the importance of advanced modelling techniques and economic indicators in managing oil price changes and help make informed decisions in the energy industry.

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布伦特原油价格动态导航：因素、趋势和见解

准确预测布伦特原油价格对全球能源市场的知情决策和风险控制至关重要。本文研究了过去 35 年布伦特原油价格的动态，利用预测建模技术预测未来价格，并分析了历史趋势以及与主要经济体 GDP 的关系。本文使用的统计方法包括移动平均数和皮尔逊相关系数。相关性研究表明，布伦特原油价格与中国、沙特阿拉伯、欧洲、俄罗斯和美国等主要经济体的国内生产总值之间存在显著的正相关关系，但历史数据分析显示价格波动较大。利用 LSTM（长短期记忆）建模方法进行高精度价格预测，可为全球能源市场提供详细的风险管理和决策信息。神经网络和 ARIMA 模型的应用表明，布伦特原油价格在下一年，即 2024 年会上涨。确定布伦特原油价格预测的重要性及其对国际市场的影响是非常必要的。因此，本文可能有助于提高经济增长。这些结果凸显了先进的建模技术和经济指标在管理石油价格变化方面的重要性，有助于能源行业做出明智的决策。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Acta Montanistica Slovaca 地学-地球科学综合

CiteScore

3.60

自引率

12.50%

发文量

审稿时长

30 weeks

期刊介绍： Acta Montanistica Slovaca publishes high quality articles on basic and applied research in the following fields: geology and geological survey; mining; Earth resources; underground engineering and geotechnics; mining mechanization, mining transport, deep hole drilling; ecotechnology and mineralurgy; process control, automation and applied informatics in raw materials extraction, utilization and processing; other similar fields. Acta Montanistica Slovaca is the only scientific journal of this kind in Central, Eastern and South Eastern Europe. The submitted manuscripts should contribute significantly to the international literature, even if the focus can be regional. Manuscripts should cite the extant and relevant international literature, should clearly state what the wider contribution is (e.g. a novel discovery, application of a new technique or methodology, application of an existing methodology to a new problem), and should discuss the importance of the work in the international context.

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