Investigating the impact of housing price increases on consumption: heterogeneity by age, tenure and housing quality

Abstract

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to understand the distributional impact of house price increases on consumption in the context of the energy transition.Design/methodology/approachThis study draws from two micro cross-sectional datasets, the English Housing Survey (EHS) and the Living Costs and Food Survey (LCFS) to study the Marginal Propensity to Consume (MPC) out of changes in house prices. By employing pseudo-panel regressions, the paper examines the impact of house price changes on consumption among diverse household types.FindingsThis paper finds varying consumption responses to house price changes across age and tenure groups. Older homeowners tend to increase consumption when house prices rise. In contrast, middle-aged individuals, often renters or mortgage holders, reduce consumption in response to price increases. The youngest age group also experiences increased consumption but to a lesser degree than the oldest group. Energy-efficient homes are related to lower consumption across all tenure levels. However, when interacted with house prices and age, the estimates are positive, pointing to an unequal accrual of property premiums depending on housing market positions.Research limitations/implicationsThe main limitations stem from data constraints. First, using a pseudo-panel approach hinders control for unobservable selection bias. Additionally, while robust under cross-validation and specifications tests, the energy efficiency variable imputation results in a low number of energy-efficient homes. Due to heterogeneous responses to rising house prices, this paper contends that an energy transition model that subsidises homeowners’ renovation is likely to produce a negative impact on consumption among younger and middle-aged households.Originality/valueThis paper contributes to the MPC literature by incorporating energy efficiency as a key variable. It draws from recent data to obtain new estimates. By highlighting shifts in consumption patterns the paper contributes to a well-established body of literature with renewed policy relevance regarding housing retrofit.