Shweta Bohora , Shiva Raj Mishra , Tim Wilson , Tony Blakely
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Background
We estimated the health gains and health inequality impacts for the Australian population alive in 2021 (n = 25.0 million) in the next 20 years and over their remaining lifespan, from shifting everyone above a BMI of 25 kg/m2 to 25 kg/m2 compared to the BMI distribution in 2021 persisting into the future.
Methods
National Health Survey 2017–2018 was used to estimate BMI distributions by sex, age and, socio-economic status (Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas; SEIFA). A proportional multistate life table linking BMI to 19 associated diseases and allowing for time lags and competing morbidity and mortality, was used to estimate the future stream of health adjusted life years (HALYs) gained from eradicating high BMI.
Findings
Undiscounted health gains in the first 20 years and lifetime of the population were, respectively, 2.00 million (95% uncertainty interval 1.70–2.32) and 20.4 million (17.0–24.2) (at a 3% annual discount rate, HALY gains were 1.37 and 5.77 million, respectively). Reductions in the incidence of cardio metabolic diseases contributed 61% (95% UI: 54%–68%) of the undiscounted health gains in the first 20 years, musculoskeletal diseases contributed 26% (20%–32%) and cancer 5% (3%–8%). HALY gains in the first 20 years and lifetime, per person alive in 2021, were 2.5 (2.4–2.5) and 1.9 (1.9–2.0) times higher for the most compared to the least deprived SEIFA quintile.
Interpretation
The total theoretical envelope of health gains, and health inequality reductions, through eradication of BMI is substantial. Our modeling infrastructure can be used to estimate the health impacts and cost effectiveness of many actual interventions.
期刊介绍:
The Lancet Regional Health – Western Pacific, a gold open access journal, is an integral part of The Lancet's global initiative advocating for healthcare quality and access worldwide. It aims to advance clinical practice and health policy in the Western Pacific region, contributing to enhanced health outcomes. The journal publishes high-quality original research shedding light on clinical practice and health policy in the region. It also includes reviews, commentaries, and opinion pieces covering diverse regional health topics, such as infectious diseases, non-communicable diseases, child and adolescent health, maternal and reproductive health, aging health, mental health, the health workforce and systems, and health policy.