Health gains from achieving optimal body mass index in Australia: a simulation study

IF 7.6 1区 医学 Q1 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES
Shweta Bohora , Shiva Raj Mishra , Tim Wilson , Tony Blakely
{"title":"Health gains from achieving optimal body mass index in Australia: a simulation study","authors":"Shweta Bohora ,&nbsp;Shiva Raj Mishra ,&nbsp;Tim Wilson ,&nbsp;Tony Blakely","doi":"10.1016/j.lanwpc.2024.101148","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>We estimated the health gains and health inequality impacts for the Australian population alive in 2021 (n = 25.0 million) in the next 20 years and over their remaining lifespan, from shifting everyone above a BMI of 25 kg/m<sup>2</sup> to 25 kg/m<sup>2</sup> compared to the BMI distribution in 2021 persisting into the future.</p></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><p>National Health Survey 2017–2018 was used to estimate BMI distributions by sex, age and, socio-economic status (Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas; SEIFA). A proportional multistate life table linking BMI to 19 associated diseases and allowing for time lags and competing morbidity and mortality, was used to estimate the future stream of health adjusted life years (HALYs) gained from eradicating high BMI.</p></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><p>Undiscounted health gains in the first 20 years and lifetime of the population were, respectively, 2.00 million (95% uncertainty interval 1.70–2.32) and 20.4 million (17.0–24.2) (at a 3% annual discount rate, HALY gains were 1.37 and 5.77 million, respectively). Reductions in the incidence of cardio metabolic diseases contributed 61% (95% UI: 54%–68%) of the undiscounted health gains in the first 20 years, musculoskeletal diseases contributed 26% (20%–32%) and cancer 5% (3%–8%). HALY gains in the first 20 years and lifetime, per person alive in 2021, were 2.5 (2.4–2.5) and 1.9 (1.9–2.0) times higher for the most compared to the least deprived SEIFA quintile.</p></div><div><h3>Interpretation</h3><p>The total theoretical envelope of health gains, and health inequality reductions, through eradication of BMI is substantial. Our modeling infrastructure can be used to estimate the health impacts and cost effectiveness of many actual interventions.</p></div><div><h3>Funding</h3><p>No funding was received for the study.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":22792,"journal":{"name":"The Lancet Regional Health: Western Pacific","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":7.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666606524001421/pdfft?md5=589a934b0ec24b857b68e495da45a35f&pid=1-s2.0-S2666606524001421-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"The Lancet Regional Health: Western Pacific","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666606524001421","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background

We estimated the health gains and health inequality impacts for the Australian population alive in 2021 (n = 25.0 million) in the next 20 years and over their remaining lifespan, from shifting everyone above a BMI of 25 kg/m2 to 25 kg/m2 compared to the BMI distribution in 2021 persisting into the future.

Methods

National Health Survey 2017–2018 was used to estimate BMI distributions by sex, age and, socio-economic status (Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas; SEIFA). A proportional multistate life table linking BMI to 19 associated diseases and allowing for time lags and competing morbidity and mortality, was used to estimate the future stream of health adjusted life years (HALYs) gained from eradicating high BMI.

Findings

Undiscounted health gains in the first 20 years and lifetime of the population were, respectively, 2.00 million (95% uncertainty interval 1.70–2.32) and 20.4 million (17.0–24.2) (at a 3% annual discount rate, HALY gains were 1.37 and 5.77 million, respectively). Reductions in the incidence of cardio metabolic diseases contributed 61% (95% UI: 54%–68%) of the undiscounted health gains in the first 20 years, musculoskeletal diseases contributed 26% (20%–32%) and cancer 5% (3%–8%). HALY gains in the first 20 years and lifetime, per person alive in 2021, were 2.5 (2.4–2.5) and 1.9 (1.9–2.0) times higher for the most compared to the least deprived SEIFA quintile.

Interpretation

The total theoretical envelope of health gains, and health inequality reductions, through eradication of BMI is substantial. Our modeling infrastructure can be used to estimate the health impacts and cost effectiveness of many actual interventions.

Funding

No funding was received for the study.

澳大利亚实现最佳体重指数的健康收益:模拟研究
背景我们估算了 2021 年澳大利亚在世人口(n = 2,500 万人)在未来 20 年和剩余寿命中的健康收益和健康不平等影响,与 2021 年的体重指数分布相比,将体重指数在 25 kg/m2 以上的所有人的体重指数降低到 25 kg/m2,而 2021 年的体重指数分布将持续到未来。方法利用 2017-2018 年全国健康调查估算了按性别、年龄和社会经济地位(地区社会经济指数;SEIFA)划分的体重指数分布。使用将 BMI 与 19 种相关疾病联系起来的比例多态生命表,并考虑到时间滞后和相互竞争的发病率和死亡率,来估算消除高 BMI 所获得的健康调整生命年(HALYs)的未来流。研究结果未贴现的前 20 年健康收益和人口终生健康收益分别为 200 万(95% 不确定区间为 170 万-232 万)和 2040 万(170 万-2420 万)(按 3% 的年贴现率计算,健康调整寿命年收益分别为 137 万和 577 万)。在前 20 年未贴现的健康收益中,心血管代谢疾病发病率的降低占 61%(95% UI:54%-68%),肌肉骨骼疾病占 26%(20%-32%),癌症占 5%(3%-8%)。与最贫困的 SEIFA 五分之一人口相比,最贫困人口在前 20 年和终生的 HALY 收益分别为 2.5(2.4-2.5)倍和 1.9(1.9-2.0)倍。我们的建模基础设施可用于估算许多实际干预措施的健康影响和成本效益。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 求助全文
来源期刊
The Lancet Regional Health: Western Pacific
The Lancet Regional Health: Western Pacific Medicine-Pediatrics, Perinatology and Child Health
CiteScore
8.80
自引率
2.80%
发文量
305
审稿时长
11 weeks
期刊介绍: The Lancet Regional Health – Western Pacific, a gold open access journal, is an integral part of The Lancet's global initiative advocating for healthcare quality and access worldwide. It aims to advance clinical practice and health policy in the Western Pacific region, contributing to enhanced health outcomes. The journal publishes high-quality original research shedding light on clinical practice and health policy in the region. It also includes reviews, commentaries, and opinion pieces covering diverse regional health topics, such as infectious diseases, non-communicable diseases, child and adolescent health, maternal and reproductive health, aging health, mental health, the health workforce and systems, and health policy.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信