Surge-NF: Neural Fields inspired peak storm surge surrogate modeling with multi-task learning and positional encoding

Abstract

Storm surges pose a significant threat to coastal communities, necessitating rapid and precise storm surge prediction methods for long-time risk assessment and emergency management. High-fidelity numerical models such as ADCIRC provide accurate storm surge simulations but are computationally expensive. Surrogate models have emerged as an alternative option to alleviate the computational burden by learning from available numerical datasets. However, existing surrogate models face challenges in capturing the highly non-stationary and non-linear patterns of storm surges, resulting in over-smoothed response surfaces. Moreover, the dry–wet status of nearshore nodes has not been informatively considered in the training process.

This study proposes Surge-NF, a novel point-based surrogate model inspired by Neural Fields (NF) from computer graphics. Surge-NF introduces two key innovations. A positional encoding module is proposed to mitigate over-smoothing of high-frequency peak storm surge spatial dependencies. A multi-task learning framework is proposed to simultaneously learn and predict the dry–wet status and peak surge values, leveraging task dependencies to improve prediction accuracy and data efficiency. We evaluate Surge-NF on the NACCS database with comparison to state-of-the-art alternative surrogate models. Surge-NF consistently reduces RMSE/MAE by 50% and achieves 4–5 times computational cost gain over baselines, requiring only 50 training storms to produce accurate predictions. The complementary benefits of the positional encoding and multi-task learning modules are evident from the improved prediction capability with their combined use.

Overall, Surge-NF represents a significant advancement in storm surge surrogate modeling, offering its novel and unique ability to capture high-frequency spatial variations and leverage task dependencies. It has the potential to greatly enhance storm surge risk assessment and emergency response management, enabling effective decision-making and mitigation strategies to safeguard coastal communities from the devastating impacts of storm surges.