(Re)Emerging disease and conflict risk in Africa, 1997–2019

Abstract

While the number of infectious zoonotic disease outbreaks has been rising, their impact on civil war and social conflict is poorly understood. This study addresses this fundamental limitation using a geolocated monthly dataset on 22 zoonotic diseases in Africa. Zoonotic disease is a key driver of new epidemics, making such pathogens a useful test case. Results suggest that over the January 1997 to December 2019 period, zoonotic disease was negatively associated with state initiation of civil conflict and positively associated with social conflict involving identity militias. Additional analyses find that the effect for identity militias is consistent with a causal interpretation. Rebel violence is not significantly associated with outbreaks. The results are robust to endogeneity concerns and additional sensitivity analyses. Koren and Bukari use geolocated data on zoonotic diseases in Africa (1997–2019) to examine their impact on conflict. They find that zoonotic diseases are linked to a decrease in state-initiated civil wars but an increase in social conflicts involving identity militias.