Predictors of response to Radioactive Iodine Therapy in Intermediate and high risk patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma.

Abstract

Background: Radioactive iodine (RAI) therapy is the standard treatment approach after total thyroidectomy in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). We aimed to identify predictive factors of response to the treatment in intermediate and high-risk patients with PTC. In addition, the impact of multiple RAI treatments was explored.

Methods: In a 3-year retrospective study, data from intermediate and high-risk patients with PTC who received RAI therapy following total thyroidectomy, were analyzed by the end of year-one and year-three. Demographic data, tumor size, capsular/vascular invasion, extrathyroidal extension, local or distant metastasis, initial dose and cumulative dose of RAI, serum thyroglobulin(Tg), antithyroglobulin antibody(TgAb), and imaging findings were investigated. Patients with an excellent response to a single dose of RAI treatment, after three years of follow-up were classified as the "Responder group". Excellent response was defined as stimulated serum Tg less than 1 ng/ml, or unstimulated serum Tg less than 0.2 ng/ml in TgAb-negative patients with negative imaging scans.

Results: 333 patient records with a complete data set were analyzed in this study. After three years of initial treatment, 271 patients were non-responders (NR) and 62 were responders (R). At baseline, the median pre-ablation serum Tg level was 5.7 ng/ml in the NR group, and 1.25 ng/ml in the R group (P < 0.001). TSH-Stimulated serum Tg greater than 15.7 ng/ml, was associated with response failure even after multiple RAI therapy, AUC: 0.717(0.660-0.774), sensitivity: 52.5%, specificity: 89.47%, P < 0.001. On the other hand, multiple RAI therapy was associated with excellent response in 16.2% of the patients. The chance of ER was decreased by 74% if initial post-operation ultrasound imaging confirmed the presence of locoregional involvement, OR 0.26, (95% CI: 0.12-0.55), P < 0.001.

Conclusion: Stimulated serum Tg and locoregional involvement after total thyroidectomy are predictive factors of non-response to RAI therapy in intermediate and high-risk patients with PTC. In addition, a minority of patients achieve excellent response after multiple RAI therapy.