Seismicity patterns before the 2021 Fin (Iran) doublet earthquakes using the region-time-length and time-to-failure methods

IF 1.2 4区 地球科学 Q3 Earth and Planetary Sciences
Salma Ommi , Vladimir Borisovich Smirnov
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Knowledge regarding earthquake hazards and seismicity is crucial for crisis management, and the occurrence of foreshocks, seismic activity patterns, and spatiotemporal variations in seismic activity have been studied. Furthermore, the estimation of the region-time-length (RTL) parameter has been proposed to detect seismic quiescence before the occurrence of a large earthquake. In addition, the time-to-failure method has been used to estimate the time occurrence of large earthquakes. Hence, in this study, to gain deeper insight into seismic activity in the southern Zagros region, we utilized the RTL algorithm to identify the quiescence and activation phases leading to the Fin doublet earthquakes. Temporal variations in the RTL parameter showed two significant anomalies. One corresponded to the occurrence time of the first earthquake (2017-12-12); the other anomaly was associated with the occurrence time of the second event (2021-11-14). Based on a negative value of the RTL parameter observed in the vicinity of the Fin epicenters (2021), seismic quiescence (a decrease in seismicity compared to the preceding background rate) was identified. The spatial distribution of the RTL prognostic parameters confirms the appearance of seismic quiescence surrounding the epicenter of the Fin doublet earthquakes (2021). The time-to-failure method was designed using precursory events that describe the acceleration of the seismic energy release before the mainshock. Using the time-to-failure method for the earthquake catalog, it was possible to estimate both the magnitude and time of failure of the Fin doublet. Hence, the time-to-failure technique can be a useful supplementary method to the RTL algorithm for determining the characteristics of impending earthquakes.

使用区域-时间长度法和时间-破坏法分析 2021 年芬尼(伊朗)双地震前的地震模式
有关地震危害和地震活动的知识对于危机管理至关重要,因此对前震的发生、地震活动模式和地震活动的时空变化进行了研究。此外,还提出了区域-时间-长度(RTL)参数的估算方法,以检测大地震发生前的地震静止状态。此外,还使用了时间到破坏方法来估计大地震发生的时间。因此,在本研究中,为了更深入地了解扎格罗斯南部地区的地震活动,我们利用 RTL 算法来识别导致芬特双地震的静止和激活阶段。RTL 参数的时间变化显示出两个显著异常。一个与第一次地震的发生时间(2017-12-12)相对应;另一个异常与第二次地震的发生时间(2021-11-14)相关。根据在 Fin 震中(2021 年)附近观测到的 RTL 参数负值,确定了地震静止(与之前的背景速率相比,地震发生率下降)。RTL 预报参数的空间分布证实了 Fin 双地震(2021 年)震中周围出现了地震静止。设计 "到破坏时间 "方法时使用了描述主震前地震能量加速释放的前兆事件。利用地震目录的时间到破坏方法,可以估算出 Fin 双发地震的震级和破坏时间。因此,时间到破坏技术可以作为 RTL 算法的一种有用的补充方法,用于确定即将发生的地震的特征。
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来源期刊
Earthquake Science
Earthquake Science GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS-
CiteScore
1.10
自引率
8.30%
发文量
42
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: Earthquake Science (EQS) aims to publish high-quality, original, peer-reviewed articles on earthquake-related research subjects. It is an English international journal sponsored by the Seismological Society of China and the Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration. The topics include, but not limited to, the following ● Seismic sources of all kinds. ● Earth structure at all scales. ● Seismotectonics. ● New methods and theoretical seismology. ● Strong ground motion. ● Seismic phenomena of all kinds. ● Seismic hazards, earthquake forecasting and prediction. ● Seismic instrumentation. ● Significant recent or past seismic events. ● Documentation of recent seismic events or important observations. ● Descriptions of field deployments, new methods, and available software tools. The types of manuscripts include the following. There is no length requirement, except for the Short Notes. 【Articles】 Original contributions that have not been published elsewhere. 【Short Notes】 Short papers of recent events or topics that warrant rapid peer reviews and publications. Limited to 4 publication pages. 【Rapid Communications】 Significant contributions that warrant rapid peer reviews and publications. 【Review Articles】Review articles are by invitation only. Please contact the editorial office and editors for possible proposals. 【Toolboxes】 Descriptions of novel numerical methods and associated computer codes. 【Data Products】 Documentation of datasets of various kinds that are interested to the community and available for open access (field data, processed data, synthetic data, or models). 【Opinions】Views on important topics and future directions in earthquake science. 【Comments and Replies】Commentaries on a recently published EQS paper is welcome. The authors of the paper commented will be invited to reply. Both the Comment and the Reply are subject to peer review.
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