{"title":"Seismicity patterns before the 2021 Fin (Iran) doublet earthquakes using the region-time-length and time-to-failure methods","authors":"Salma Ommi , Vladimir Borisovich Smirnov","doi":"10.1016/j.eqs.2024.04.005","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Knowledge regarding earthquake hazards and seismicity is crucial for crisis management, and the occurrence of foreshocks, seismic activity patterns, and spatiotemporal variations in seismic activity have been studied. Furthermore, the estimation of the region-time-length (RTL) parameter has been proposed to detect seismic quiescence before the occurrence of a large earthquake. In addition, the time-to-failure method has been used to estimate the time occurrence of large earthquakes. Hence, in this study, to gain deeper insight into seismic activity in the southern Zagros region, we utilized the RTL algorithm to identify the quiescence and activation phases leading to the Fin doublet earthquakes. Temporal variations in the RTL parameter showed two significant anomalies. One corresponded to the occurrence time of the first earthquake (2017-12-12); the other anomaly was associated with the occurrence time of the second event (2021-11-14). Based on a negative value of the RTL parameter observed in the vicinity of the Fin epicenters (2021), seismic quiescence (a decrease in seismicity compared to the preceding background rate) was identified. The spatial distribution of the RTL prognostic parameters confirms the appearance of seismic quiescence surrounding the epicenter of the Fin doublet earthquakes (2021). The time-to-failure method was designed using precursory events that describe the acceleration of the seismic energy release before the mainshock. Using the time-to-failure method for the earthquake catalog, it was possible to estimate both the magnitude and time of failure of the Fin doublet. Hence, the time-to-failure technique can be a useful supplementary method to the RTL algorithm for determining the characteristics of impending earthquakes.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46333,"journal":{"name":"Earthquake Science","volume":"37 4","pages":"Pages 324-336"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S167445192400048X/pdfft?md5=3091c0da3bf67890ea2f5229ea136984&pid=1-s2.0-S167445192400048X-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Earthquake Science","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S167445192400048X","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Knowledge regarding earthquake hazards and seismicity is crucial for crisis management, and the occurrence of foreshocks, seismic activity patterns, and spatiotemporal variations in seismic activity have been studied. Furthermore, the estimation of the region-time-length (RTL) parameter has been proposed to detect seismic quiescence before the occurrence of a large earthquake. In addition, the time-to-failure method has been used to estimate the time occurrence of large earthquakes. Hence, in this study, to gain deeper insight into seismic activity in the southern Zagros region, we utilized the RTL algorithm to identify the quiescence and activation phases leading to the Fin doublet earthquakes. Temporal variations in the RTL parameter showed two significant anomalies. One corresponded to the occurrence time of the first earthquake (2017-12-12); the other anomaly was associated with the occurrence time of the second event (2021-11-14). Based on a negative value of the RTL parameter observed in the vicinity of the Fin epicenters (2021), seismic quiescence (a decrease in seismicity compared to the preceding background rate) was identified. The spatial distribution of the RTL prognostic parameters confirms the appearance of seismic quiescence surrounding the epicenter of the Fin doublet earthquakes (2021). The time-to-failure method was designed using precursory events that describe the acceleration of the seismic energy release before the mainshock. Using the time-to-failure method for the earthquake catalog, it was possible to estimate both the magnitude and time of failure of the Fin doublet. Hence, the time-to-failure technique can be a useful supplementary method to the RTL algorithm for determining the characteristics of impending earthquakes.
期刊介绍:
Earthquake Science (EQS) aims to publish high-quality, original, peer-reviewed articles on earthquake-related research subjects. It is an English international journal sponsored by the Seismological Society of China and the Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration.
The topics include, but not limited to, the following
● Seismic sources of all kinds.
● Earth structure at all scales.
● Seismotectonics.
● New methods and theoretical seismology.
● Strong ground motion.
● Seismic phenomena of all kinds.
● Seismic hazards, earthquake forecasting and prediction.
● Seismic instrumentation.
● Significant recent or past seismic events.
● Documentation of recent seismic events or important observations.
● Descriptions of field deployments, new methods, and available software tools.
The types of manuscripts include the following. There is no length requirement, except for the Short Notes.
【Articles】 Original contributions that have not been published elsewhere.
【Short Notes】 Short papers of recent events or topics that warrant rapid peer reviews and publications. Limited to 4 publication pages.
【Rapid Communications】 Significant contributions that warrant rapid peer reviews and publications.
【Review Articles】Review articles are by invitation only. Please contact the editorial office and editors for possible proposals.
【Toolboxes】 Descriptions of novel numerical methods and associated computer codes.
【Data Products】 Documentation of datasets of various kinds that are interested to the community and available for open access (field data, processed data, synthetic data, or models).
【Opinions】Views on important topics and future directions in earthquake science.
【Comments and Replies】Commentaries on a recently published EQS paper is welcome. The authors of the paper commented will be invited to reply. Both the Comment and the Reply are subject to peer review.