Scenarios on future electricity storage requirements in the austrian electricity system with high shares of variable renewables

Abstract

This paper presents three scenarios (policy, renewables and electrification and efficiency) for transitioning to a 100 % renewable electricity sector in Austria, based predominantly on wind and photovoltaics, alongside sector-specific electrification. Considering renewable expansion targets and three distinctive weather years from an overall system perspective, the core objective is to minimize variable costs of electricity storage and dispatchable power plants. The model developed determines their optimal dispatch for meeting the underlying electricity demand each hour. Within the scenarios for renewable expansion, a special focus lies on integrating short-duration (batteries), medium-duration (pumped storage hydro) and long-duration (hydrogen) energy storage. Our analysis reveals the significant impact of weather patterns on renewable electricity generation, particularly the differences between winter and summer generation quantities. This necessitates seasonal balancing and the mitigation of extremes like low wind power events, which require corresponding backup capacities. This contrast is particularly evident when comparing the years 2030–2050, wherein in the latter, certain dispatchable generators are only utilized in one of the three underlying weather years during extreme weather conditions. In our paper, we demonstrate how, especially for hydrogen production and storage, weather conditions influence production levels and the re-electrification demand. The results indicate the feasibility of achieving a fully decarbonized energy system in Austria through suitable policy measures and expanded renewable generation, with long-duration storage playing a crucial role in seasonal balance and compensating for the absence of fossil fuel generation. Strategic planning is essential to aligning the expansion of renewable energy generation with the necessary flexibility.