Modeling and optimal control of COVID-19 with comorbidity and three-dose vaccination in Indonesia

Q1 Social Sciences

Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity Pub Date : 2024-07-06 DOI:10.1016/j.jobb.2024.06.004

Muhammad Abdurrahman Rois , Fatmawati , Cicik Alfiniyah , Santi Martini , Dipo Aldila , Farai Nyabadza

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Abstract

This paper presents and examines a COVID-19 model that takes comorbidities and up to three vaccine doses into account. We analyze the stability of the equilibria, examine herd immunity, and conduct a sensitivity analysis validated by data on COVID-19 in Indonesia. The disease-free equilibrium is locally and globally asymptotically stable whenever the basic reproduction number is less than one, while an endemic equilibrium exists and is globally asymptotically stable when the number is greater than one. Subsequently, the model incorporates two effective measures, namely public education and enhanced medical care, to determine the most advantageous approach for mitigating the transmission of the disease. The optimal control model is then determined using Pontryagin’s maximum principle. The integrated control strategy is the best method for reliably safeguarding the general population against COVID-19 infection. Cost evaluations and numerical simulations corroborate this conclusion.

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印度尼西亚 COVID-19 合并症和三剂疫苗接种的建模和优化控制

本文介绍并研究了将合并症和多达三种疫苗剂量考虑在内的 COVID-19 模型。我们分析了均衡的稳定性，研究了群体免疫，并通过印度尼西亚 COVID-19 的数据进行了敏感性分析。当基本繁殖数小于 1 时，无病平衡是局部和全局渐近稳定的，而当基本繁殖数大于 1 时，存在地方病平衡，并且是全局渐近稳定的。随后，该模型纳入了两种有效措施，即公共教育和加强医疗保健，以确定缓解疾病传播的最有利方法。然后，利用庞特里亚金最大原则确定最佳控制模型。综合控制策略是可靠保护大众免受 COVID-19 感染的最佳方法。成本评估和数值模拟证实了这一结论。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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