Coordinated transition of the supply and demand sides of China's energy system

Abstract

Transitioning towards a low-carbon energy system is critical to mitigate climate change risks and ensuring energy security. However, few studies have examined the coordinated transition between the supply-side and demand-side aspects of energy systems. In the present study, a quantitative evaluation system for the energy transition in China considering both the supply and demand sides is established, and the coupled coordination degree and the Tapio decoupling model are utilized to analyse the level of coordinated development between these sides. Machine learning techniques are employed to identify key drivers of coordinated transitions. Several key findings are derived: (1) Between 2005 and 2020, China's energy transition level increased significantly. However, the demand-side transition lagged behind the supply-side. (2) Significant regional differences existed; the southwestern region led in terms of progress, while the northeastern and northern regions lagged behind. The spatial distribution pattern indicated higher levels in the southern region and lower levels in the northern region. (3) The level of coordinated transition was moderate, but the coupling relationship increased. The southwest region exhibited the highest level of coordinated transformation; however, supply-side transformation lagged in the southeastern region, and demand-side transformation lagged in the northern region. (4) The coordinated transition was linked to regional development levels. This transformation was driven by environmental regulations and industrial structures. Furthermore, technological level, affluence level, urbanization level, and foreign direct investment were influencing factors. This study provides a scientific basis for thoroughly understanding China's energy transition challenges, prioritizing governance efforts, and formulating effective transition policies.