Cost-effectiveness analysis of NVX-CoV2373 COVID-19 vaccination for elderly people in Japan

Abstract

Background

NVX-CoV2373 is one of the vaccines marketed for COVID-19 prevention in Japan. Information on its cost-effectiveness is important for making well-informed decisions on the future of Japan’s COVID-19 vaccination programme from the public healthcare payer’s perspective. The aim of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of NVX-CoV2373 vaccination in the elderly Japanese population.

Methods

Two analysis populations that included elderly Japanese individuals (aged ≥ 65 years) were defined in this study: those who had not received a COVID-19 vaccine or had not completed a primary vaccination series (i.e., first two vaccinations) with an approved COVID-19 vaccine (analysis population 1), and those who had received two primary vaccinations with an approved COVID-19 vaccine (analysis population 2). A literature-informed Markov model for each analysis population was developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of vaccination with NVX-CoV2373 against no vaccination with NVX-CoV2373 from the public healthcare payer’s perspective as a base-case analysis and from the societal perspective as a scenario analysis. Vaccine efficacy was estimated from a phase 3 study of NVX-CoV2373 (EudraCT number: 2020–004123-16). Cost-effectiveness was assessed using a willingness-to-pay threshold of Japanese yen (JPY) 5 million per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were also performed.

Results

For analysis population 1, NVX-CoV2373 primary and booster vaccinations would reduce costs by JPY 37,647 and prolong QALYs by 0.01601. Therefore, NVX-CoV2373 primary and booster vaccinations were considered to be dominant over no vaccination. For analysis population 2, an NVX-CoV2373 booster vaccination would increase costs by JPY 5010 and prolong QALYs by 0.00550, with the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of JPY 910,566 per QALY gained.

Conclusions

Our analyses suggest that a vaccination strategy with NVX-CoV2373 is cost-effective in the elderly population (aged ≥ 65 years) of Japan.