Ensemble spatial modeling, considering habitat and biological traits, for predicting the potential distribution of Corythucha ciliata

Abstract

Ensemble species distribution modeling offers a robust approach to reduce the inherent uncertainties associated with single models, and ultimately providing more accurate predictions of regions with a heightened probability of occurrence. As Corythucha ciliata (Say) damages deciduous trees in diverse environments, including urban, suburban and forested regions, the objective of this study was to predict the potential distribution of C. ciliata by developing an ensemble model that comprehensively considered the biological and habitat traits of the pest using the CLIMEX and MaxEnt models. Although the ensemble model did not have significantly improved performance, compared with the single MaxEnt model, it was robust compared with distribution data. Our predictions suggest that C. ciliata will gradually expand its range from its current distribution in response to climate change, necessitating focused monitoring and pest-control efforts in the predicted regions. This study not only evaluates pest distribution but also provides crucial insights into effective control strategies, which are adaptable to other pest management scenarios.