Compound climate change risk analysis for port infrastructures

Abstract

Ports serve as essential nodes for coastal and maritime transportation and are key sources of income and economic activity in coastal zones. This significance, combined with their location in coastal areas, which are prone to climate-driven impacts, makes them highly susceptible to climate change effects. In this work, a climate change risk assessment methodology for port infrastructures that is focused on compound events analysis is presented. This approach is based on a spatial high-resolution probabilistic framework that enables the evaluation of port performance evolution under the effects of climate change. This assessment draws from a multimodel characterization of the evolution of several climate drivers for different emission scenarios and time horizons. It accounts for multiple port infrastructure risks and considers the compound effects of climate drivers and the interdependencies of infrastructures as complex systems. Performance indicators are developed for the physical assets and services at port locations on a highly granular scale, thus allowing port managers and planners to allocate reserves and develop adaptation plans that reduce climate change risks in the operations of maritime transportation nodes based on port performance forecasts. The methodology is implemented in two case studies set in the northern coast of Spain, demonstrating its applicability and replicability among several locations and scales.