Mapping and modeling groundwater potential using machine learning, deep learning and ensemble learning models in the Saiss basin (Fez-Meknes region, Morocco)

Abstract

The Saïss basin in the Fez-Meknes region of Morocco, covering approximately 2100 km², faces increased water demand due to population growth, economic development, and climate change, making groundwater a crucial resource. This study aims to delineate areas with groundwater potential (GWP) and evaluate the performance of various machine learning, deep learning, and hybrid ensemble models in predicting GWP. Using a dataset of 440 springs and wells, and 20 groundwater conditioning factors (GWCF) including topographical, hydrological, geological, and hydrogeological features, the study employed multi-collinearity analysis, variance inflation factor (VIF), tolerance (Tol) assessments, and an Information Gain (IG) test to analyze these factors. The study compared the performance of three machine learning algorithms (Gaussian Naive Bayes (GNB), k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Gradient Boosting Classifier (GBC)), three deep learning algorithms (Deep Learning Neural Networks (DLNN), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN)), and a hybrid ensemble model (Random Forests (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Logistic Regression (LR)) using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC-AUC) as the evaluation metric. The results showed that the hybrid ensemble model had the highest AUC of 0.86, followed by GBC (AUC = 0.85), DLNN (AUC = 0.84), CNN (AUC = 0.83), KNN (AUC = 0.79), RNN (AUC = 0.78), and GNB (AUC = 0.75). The study revealed that 45% of the Saïss Basin exhibits high to very high GWP, particularly in Ain Taoujdat, Haj Kaddour, and Boufekrane districts, with lithology, slope, and transmissivity being the most influential factors. The resulting GWP map can guide decision-makers in planning well and borehole drilling for drinking water and agriculture, as well as artificial recharge projects, thus promoting sustainable groundwater management in the Saïss basin.