Projected rising temperatures and vapour pressure deficit threaten Arabica coffee production Tanzania's burgeoning coffee region: Empirical insight from Mbinga district, Tanzania

Q2 Environmental Science
Ng'winamila Kasongi , Nestory Yamungu , Caleb Gallemore , Kristjan Jespersen
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Abstract

Tanzania is emerging as a key coffee producer, but climate change poses a serious threat to coffee production in the country. While extensive literature addresses climatic variables’ trends and variability in coffee-growing regions globally, elevation, a crucial factor in coffee cultivation, is often overlooked. This paper aims to fill this knowledge gap by examining the future trends and variability of climatic variables identified in previous studies being crucial for Arabica coffee (rainfall, temperature, and vapor pressure Deficit (VPD)) during different phenological stages of Arabica coffee growth across three elevation zones (lowland, midland, and highland). We study the Mbinga district, now a major Arabica-producing area and the forefront of hopes for expanding production in Tanzania. We used a Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) of two Global Circulation Models (GCMs) to estimate the future trends and variability of rainfall, temperature, and VPD under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios from 2023 to 2064. We analyzed these data using non-parametric trend analysis (Mann-Kendal and Sen's slope test estimation) and standardized anomalies. Our results suggest that both temperatures (minimum and maximum) and VPD during critical flowering and growing seasons are projected to increase significantly over the next 42 years across all elevation zones under both emission scenarios. The mean annual temperatures across elevation zones in Mbinga are projected to surpass the optimal temperature envelope (23 °C) for producing quality Arabica, challenging the notion that the highlands might serve as a refuge for future production. The mean annual VPD in the lowlands are projected to surpass the optimal envelope (0.82 kPa) for Arabica productivity from 2023 to 2064 under both emission scenarios, while midlands are projected to surpass the optimal VPD envelope from mid-2040s onwards in constrast, the highlands are projected to stay within the optimal VPD envelope for Arabica productivity from 2023 to 2064 under both emission scenarios. Nevertheless, as highlands are projected to get more warmer in the future because of rising temperatures, this hope might not be feasible in the post-2064. To secure Mbinga's future in global coffee value chains, the Tanzanian government and stakeholders must support adaptation measures, enhancing smallholders’ resilience against climate-induced disruptions.

预计气温升高和蒸汽压力不足将威胁阿拉比卡咖啡的生产 坦桑尼亚新兴的咖啡产区:坦桑尼亚姆宾加地区的经验启示
坦桑尼亚正在成为一个重要的咖啡生产国,但气候变化对该国的咖啡生产构成了严重威胁。虽然大量文献探讨了全球咖啡种植区气候变量的趋势和变化,但海拔这一咖啡种植的关键因素却常常被忽视。本文旨在填补这一知识空白,研究了以往研究中发现的对阿拉比卡咖啡至关重要的气候变量(降雨、温度和蒸汽压力不足(VPD))在三个海拔区(低地、中地和高地)阿拉比卡咖啡生长的不同物候期的未来趋势和变异性。我们研究了姆宾加地区,该地区目前是阿拉比卡咖啡的主要产区,也是坦桑尼亚希望扩大生产的前沿地区。我们使用由两个全球环流模型(GCM)组成的多模型集合(MME)来估算 2023 年至 2064 年 SSP2-4.5 和 SSP5-8.5 情景下降雨、温度和 VPD 的未来趋势和变化。我们使用非参数趋势分析(Mann-Kendal 和 Sen 的斜率检验估计)和标准化异常值对这些数据进行了分析。我们的结果表明,在两种排放情景下,预计未来 42 年内所有海拔区关键开花和生长季节的气温(最低气温和最高气温)和 VPD 都将显著增加。预计姆宾加各海拔区的年平均气温将超过生产优质阿拉比卡的最佳温度范围(23 °C),这对高地可能成为未来生产避难所的观点提出了挑战。在两种排放情景下,预计从 2023 年到 2064 年,低地的年平均 VPD 将超过阿拉比卡产量的最佳范围(0.82 kPa),而中地预计从 2040 年代中期开始将超过最佳 VPD 范围;相反,在两种排放情景下,预计从 2023 年到 2064 年,高地的阿拉比卡产量将保持在最佳 VPD 范围内。然而,由于气温升高,预计未来高地将变得更加温暖,这一希望在 2064 年后可能不再可行。为了确保姆宾加未来在全球咖啡价值链中的地位,坦桑尼亚政府和利益相关者必须支持适应措施,增强小农户抵御气候干扰的能力。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Environmental Challenges
Environmental Challenges Environmental Science-Environmental Engineering
CiteScore
8.00
自引率
0.00%
发文量
249
审稿时长
8 weeks
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