Facilitating sustainable energy transition of Nepal: A best-fit model to prioritize influential socio-economic and climate perception factors on household energy behaviour

Abstract

Our study investigates the relatively unexplored relationships between socio-economic factors and perceptions of climate change and their influence on household energy preferences in developing contexts, taking the case of Nepal. We aim to achieve two objectives: to create a robust model identifying key socio-economic and climate perception variables affecting household energy behaviour; and to compare the respective impacts of these factors. Applying a mixed-method approach, we surveyed 323 households across 49 districts and three physiographic regions (high hills, mid hills and Terai plains) of Nepal. We fixed the explanatory and response variables through literature review and evaluated three ordinal logistic regression models: one focused solely on socio-economic factors, the second only on climate perception and the third a composite model integrating both. Data statistics showed that 47 % of the respondents preferred no change to their existing energy status, 23 % opted to rely completely on grid-electricity, 14 % favoured switching to renewables, while 16 % preferred an optimal combination of grid-electricity and renewables for their household use. The Composite-model was found to be the best fit model for our dataset. The identified key socio-economic factors include urbanization, education levels, and the availability of energy alternatives indicating a wide disparity in the energy access and use across the different socio-economic categories of Nepal. Likewise, magnitude and timing of summer and winter rainfall, changes in the household energy demands and community level subsidies were found to be the significant climate change perception variables. Hence, our findings highlight the need for better access to modern energy and financial incentives, mostly to the rural remote areas, and community-awareness initiatives throughout the country supported by comprehensive energy policies for sustainable renewable energy transition at the household level as well as in mitigation of the impacts of climate change. By enhancing this policy-science-society interface, our research contributes valuable insights for developing effective strategies to promote renewable energy adoption in similar developing contexts.