Economic evaluation of reopening a dormant tree improvement programme: a case study with Scots pine in Scotland

IF 3 2区农林科学 Q1 FORESTRY

Forestry Pub Date : 2024-07-10 DOI:10.1093/forestry/cpae037

Vadim Saraev, Anssi Ahtikoski, Richard Whittet, Duncan Ray

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The deployment of improved forest reproductive material (FRM) selected to yield greater timber volume and quality than unimproved material could help to maintain productive, sustainable, and resilient forests and increase resistance to abiotic and biotic threats under extreme climate change events. In Scotland, Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) is a productive species that aligns with these objectives. However, confidence in Scots pine has been low in recent years due to damage caused by the needle blight Dothistroma septosporum. Recent provenance/progeny trials using native Scots pine material from the Caledonian pine woods indicate a favourable genetic correlation between growth and resistance to D. septosporum, suggesting that simultaneous improvements are possible. The Scots pine breeding programme in Scotland was closed in 2002. Here, we present an economic case for reopening the breeding programme to further improve Scots pine FRM. Specifically, we evaluate the costs and potential benefits of supporting a new programme. We conduct an analysis using three improvement scenarios using a Faustmann formula (amended with thinnings) to maximize the land expectation value. Our results indicate that further improvement of Scots pine FRM would be cost-effective, outperforming the current Scots pine timber production and financial outcomes. The analysis shows that the Central scenario’s land expectation value rises by £883 ha−1 compared to the baseline of £79 ha−1, assuming a 3.5% interest rate. We employed both annuity calculations and a break-even analysis to show improved FRM could maintain a breeding programme investment of £3.5 million per year over a 30-year period with a break-even cost threshold increase of ~52% for purchasing improved planting materials from £0.33 to £0.50 per seedling. In conclusion, the study provides economic evidence of the commercial benefits for reopening the Scots pine breeding programme to increase timber production and financial returns.

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重启休眠期树木改良计划的经济评估：苏格兰苏格兰松树案例研究

与未经改良的材料相比，经过改良的森林繁殖材料（FRM）能产出更多的木材，质量更高，这种材料的应用有助于保持森林的生产力、可持续性和恢复力，并在极端气候变化事件下增强对非生物性和生物性威胁的抵抗力。在苏格兰，苏格兰松（Pinus sylvestris L.）是符合这些目标的高产树种。然而，近年来由于针叶枯萎病 Dothistroma septosporum 的破坏，人们对苏格兰松树的信心不足。最近使用来自卡利多尼亚松树林的本地苏格兰松树材料进行的原产地/原种试验表明，苏格兰松树的生长和对七孢疫霉的抗性之间存在有利的遗传相关性，这表明同时进行改良是可能的。苏格兰的苏格兰松育种计划已于 2002 年关闭。在此，我们提出了重启育种计划以进一步提高苏格兰松树抗倒伏能力的经济案例。具体来说，我们评估了支持新计划的成本和潜在效益。我们采用福斯特曼公式（经疏伐修正）对三种改良方案进行了分析，以实现土地期望值的最大化。我们的结果表明，进一步改进苏格兰松树的森林资源恢复机制将具有成本效益，优于当前的苏格兰松树木材生产和财务结果。分析表明，假设利率为 3.5%，与 79 英镑/公顷-1 的基线相比，中央方案的土地期望值增加了 883 英镑/公顷-1。我们同时采用了年金计算和盈亏平衡分析，结果表明改良 FRM 可在 30 年内保持每年 350 万英镑的育种计划投资，而购买改良种植材料的盈亏平衡成本阈值从每株幼苗 0.33 英镑增加到 0.50 英镑，增幅约为 52%。总之，这项研究提供了经济证据，证明了重启苏格兰松树育种计划以提高木材产量和经济收益的商业利益。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Forestry 农林科学-林学

CiteScore

6.70

自引率

7.10%

发文量

审稿时长

12-24 weeks

期刊介绍： The journal is inclusive of all subjects, geographical zones and study locations, including trees in urban environments, plantations and natural forests. We welcome papers that consider economic, environmental and social factors and, in particular, studies that take an integrated approach to sustainable management. In considering suitability for publication, attention is given to the originality of contributions and their likely impact on policy and practice, as well as their contribution to the development of knowledge. Special Issues - each year one edition of Forestry will be a Special Issue and will focus on one subject in detail; this will usually be by publication of the proceedings of an international meeting.