Analysis practice of exchange rate determinants: a case study of foreign exchange operators in trading rooms

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to focus on exploring and understanding the practice of analyzing the determinants of the Moroccan Dirham by foreign exchange professionals in trading rooms in the context of transitioning to a more flexible regime initiated by Moroccan authorities. The objective of this study is to highlight how foreign exchange operators analyze the determinants of the Moroccan Dirham in the context of exchange rate liberalization, focusing primarily on qualitative data rather than quantitative data.

Design/methodology/approach

Therefore, this paper opted for a methodological approach using interview surveys to understand the underlying behavior of Moroccan foreign exchange operators, conducting a content analysis. This paper targeted six foreign exchange operators from nine Moroccan banks authorized as market makers by Bank Al-Maghrib.

Findings

The results indicate that the fluctuations of the Moroccan Dirham are closely linked to two main factors: the analysis of the EUR/USD exchange rate and market liquidity analysis. Furthermore, content analysis revealed five essential aspects regarding the practice of analyzing the determinants of the Dirham: “Dirham determinants,” “complementarity between technical analysis and fundamental analysis,” “trends and reversals,” “utility of macroeconomic models” and “psychological factors.”

Research limitations/implications

Certainly, this methodology allows for exploring and understanding the underlying behavior of currency operators but inherently generates a certain degree of subjectivity that can affect the research validity. Indeed, the subjectivity can arise from the responses of the currency operators themselves. They may present the phenomenon coherently or selectively choose the elements they remember to respond to. On the other hand, the validity of this type of research relies on the researcher's ability to cultivate empathy throughout the knowledge creation process. The empathetic stance adopted in this study proved to be complex due to the uniqueness of operators and interaction, sometimes making it challenging to combine empathy, respect and critical thinking (Olivier De Sardan, 2004). Furthermore, the researcher is often faced with an interpretation bias, which can manifest not only during the coding of collected data but also during the analysis of the constructed content. To mitigate this interpretation bias, this paper subjected the collected data to a double coding procedure.

Practical implications

This study aims to narrow the gap in opinions between academics and practitioners by providing a practical overview for change novices.

Originality/value

This study is the pioneering inquiry exploring the process of determining the Moroccan dirham within the transition to a flexible exchange rate regime, using an exploratory methodological approach.