Impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution patterns of pelagic fishes in the Southern Ocean

IF 4 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Global and Planetary Change Pub Date : 2024-06-30 DOI:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104504

Yifan Zhai , Yugui Zhu , Daomin Peng , Jiansong Chu

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Abstract

Pelagic fishes are a key trophic component of the Southern Ocean ecosystem. However, understanding the spatial and temporal changes in geographic distribution patterns of pelagic fishes in the context of climate change remains limited. This research applied the MaxEnt model to project the distributions of current and future (2100s) suitable habitats for ten major pelagic fish species in the Southern Ocean (two scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Results suggested that the current spatial distribution of pelagic fishes is significantly correlated with their realized niche and that global warming will lead to significant changes in the spatial distribution of pelagic fishes in the Southern Ocean. Model predictions showed that eight out of ten pelagic fish species are likely to face a significant reduction in their ranges of suitable habitats under the RCP8.5 scenario by the 2100s. Except for the Bathylagus antarcticus, all of the other nine species were predicted to migrate toward South Pole by the 2100s. In addition, the community composition of pelagic fishes also may change significantly, mostly because of species loss. The results of this study clarify the impact of climate change on pelagic fishes in the Southern Ocean, and provide theoretical support for sustainable management and conservation efforts of these pelagic fishes.

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气候变化对南大洋中上层鱼类地理分布模式的影响

中上层鱼类是南大洋生态系统的重要营养成分。然而，对气候变化背景下中上层鱼类地理分布格局的时空变化的了解仍然有限。本研究应用 MaxEnt 模型预测了南大洋十种主要中上层鱼类当前和未来（2100 年代）适宜栖息地的分布情况（两种情景：RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5）。结果表明，中上层鱼类目前的空间分布与其实现的生态位显著相关，全球变暖将导致南大洋中上层鱼类的空间分布发生重大变化。模型预测显示，在 RCP8.5 情景下，到 2100 年代，10 种中上层鱼类中有 8 种的适宜栖息地范围可能会大幅缩小。据预测，到 2100 年代，除鲣鱼外，其他九种鱼类都将向南极迁移。此外，中上层鱼类的群落组成也可能发生显著变化，主要原因是物种的消失。该研究结果阐明了气候变化对南大洋中上层鱼类的影响，为这些中上层鱼类的可持续管理和保护工作提供了理论支持。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Global and Planetary Change 地学天文-地球科学综合

CiteScore

7.40

自引率

10.30%

发文量

226

审稿时长

63 days

期刊介绍： The objective of the journal Global and Planetary Change is to provide a multi-disciplinary overview of the processes taking place in the Earth System and involved in planetary change over time. The journal focuses on records of the past and current state of the earth system, and future scenarios , and their link to global environmental change. Regional or process-oriented studies are welcome if they discuss global implications. Topics include, but are not limited to, changes in the dynamics and composition of the atmosphere, oceans and cryosphere, as well as climate change, sea level variation, observations/modelling of Earth processes from deep to (near-)surface and their coupling, global ecology, biogeography and the resilience/thresholds in ecosystems. Key criteria for the consideration of manuscripts are (a) the relevance for the global scientific community and/or (b) the wider implications for global scale problems, preferably combined with (c) having a significance beyond a single discipline. A clear focus on key processes associated with planetary scale change is strongly encouraged. Manuscripts can be submitted as either research contributions or as a review article. Every effort should be made towards the presentation of research outcomes in an understandable way for a broad readership.