When Half Is at Least 50%: Effect of “Framing” and Probability Level on Frequency Estimates

IF 1.8 3区 心理学 Q3 PSYCHOLOGY, APPLIED
David R. Mandel, Megan Kelly
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Abstract

Expert judgment often involves estimating magnitudes, such as the frequency of deaths due to a pandemic. Three experiments (Ns = 902, 431, and 755, respectively) were conducted to examine the effect of outcome framing (e.g., half of a threatened group expected to survive vs. die), probability level (low vs. high), and probability format (verbal, numeric, or combined) on the estimated frequency of survivals/deaths. Each experiment found an interactive effect of frame and probability level, which supported the hypothesis that forecasted outcomes received by participants were implicitly quantified as lower bounds (i.e., “at least half”). Responding in a manner consistent with a lower-bound “at least” interpretation was unrelated to incoherence (Experiments 1 and 2) and positively related to numeracy (Experiments 1 and 3), verbal reasoning (Experiment 3), and actively open-minded thinking (Experiments 2 and 3). The correlational results indicate that implicit lower bounding is an aspect of linguistic inference and not a cognitive error. Implications for research on framing effects are discussed.

Abstract Image

当一半至少是 50%时:框架 "和概率水平对频率估计的影响
专家判断通常涉及到对数量的估计,例如大流行病导致的死亡频率。我们进行了三项实验(人数分别为 902、431 和 755),研究结果框架(例如,受威胁群体中预计有一半人存活或死亡)、概率水平(低或高)和概率格式(口头、数字或组合)对存活/死亡频率估计的影响。每个实验都发现了框架和概率水平的交互影响,这支持了这样一个假设,即参与者得到的预测结果被隐含地量化为下限(即 "至少一半")。以符合 "至少 "下限解释的方式做出反应与不一致性无关(实验 1 和 2),而与计算能力(实验 1 和 3)、言语推理(实验 3)和积极开阔的思维(实验 2 和 3)正相关。相关结果表明,内隐下限是语言推理的一个方面,而不是认知错误。本文讨论了框架效应研究的意义。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.40
自引率
5.00%
发文量
40
期刊介绍: The Journal of Behavioral Decision Making is a multidisciplinary journal with a broad base of content and style. It publishes original empirical reports, critical review papers, theoretical analyses and methodological contributions. The Journal also features book, software and decision aiding technique reviews, abstracts of important articles published elsewhere and teaching suggestions. The objective of the Journal is to present and stimulate behavioral research on decision making and to provide a forum for the evaluation of complementary, contrasting and conflicting perspectives. These perspectives include psychology, management science, sociology, political science and economics. Studies of behavioral decision making in naturalistic and applied settings are encouraged.
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