Mathematical modeling and seasonal solar radiation variability in Nigeria’s geo-political zones: A recurrence and multifractal analysis

Abstract

This article delves into the seasonal variation of solar radiation patterns across Nigeria’s four geo-political zones, exploring their complex, scale-dependent behaviors. By employing chaotic quantifiers, the study characterizes irregular and self-similar patterns, enhancing our understanding of solar radiation variability and heterogeneity. The research uniquely fits meteorological parameters onto a global solar radiation model and focuses on the underexplored nonlinear aspects within tropical regions, specifically in the Nigerian context. Utilizing daily data from ERA INTERIM satellite archives for representative stations, the study employs nonlinear time series analysis methods like recurrence plots, recurrence qualitative analysis, and multifractal spectral analysis to comprehensively explore the unpredictable behaviors observed. The quantifier spectrums play a key role in revealing intricate scaling behaviors and correlation structures among environmental variables, shedding light on patterns often concealed by conventional statistical methods. For instance, we found that solar radiation variability in the northern region increases more significantly during the dry season compared to the wet season, unlike in the southern region. Additionally, the multifractal spectral analysis revealed a higher degree of complexity in solar radiation patterns during transition periods between seasons. The findings reveal a low recurrence quantitative analysis, long right tail, and truncations at both ends of the spectrum. This suggests instability in solar radiation across different seasons and locations. Nonetheless, the results also demonstrate that solar radiation is consistently available throughout the year, which is typical of tropical regions.