{"title":"The impact of opening the Arctic Northeast Passage on China's carbon emissions","authors":"Laike Yang, Miaomiao Jiang","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2024.07.006","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The increase in shipping along Arctic routes has resulted in an increasing need for the environmental effects of shipping to be considered. Existing studies on the environmental impact of Arctic routes have focused mainly on shipping operations and have paid little attention to the dynamic features of opening new shipping routes. In light of the continuing retreat of Arctic sea ice, this study aimed to predict changes in China's CO<sub>2</sub> emissions from a production perspective via scenarios of the opening of the Arctic Northeast Passage (NEP) in different future years (2025, 2030, 2035). A shipping cost model was first developed to calculate the changes in shipping costs resulting from commercial use of the NEP. Then, an energy-environmental version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP-E) model and the GTAP-E 10.0 database were used to simulate the changes in CO<sub>2</sub> emissions that may arise from the economic adjustments to the opening of the NEP. The driving factors and possible mechanisms of the environmental effects of the NEP were analyzed based on the simulation results. The re-simulation for the environmental effects of opening the NEP taking emission control policies into account was performed. The findings showed that the opening of the NEP would increase global CO<sub>2</sub> emissions. This effect would gradually increase over time. For China, opening the NEP would initially reduce short- and medium-term CO<sub>2</sub> emissions owing to upgrades of sectoral structure, while ultimately elevating emissions in the long run due to a large expansion in trade and the economy. The economic growth driven by commercial use of the NEP would tend to optimize the Chinese sectoral and energy structure in the short run. Notably, emission control policies would markedly affect the aforementioned environmental outcomes of opening the NEP.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Transport Policy","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X24002026","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
The increase in shipping along Arctic routes has resulted in an increasing need for the environmental effects of shipping to be considered. Existing studies on the environmental impact of Arctic routes have focused mainly on shipping operations and have paid little attention to the dynamic features of opening new shipping routes. In light of the continuing retreat of Arctic sea ice, this study aimed to predict changes in China's CO2 emissions from a production perspective via scenarios of the opening of the Arctic Northeast Passage (NEP) in different future years (2025, 2030, 2035). A shipping cost model was first developed to calculate the changes in shipping costs resulting from commercial use of the NEP. Then, an energy-environmental version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP-E) model and the GTAP-E 10.0 database were used to simulate the changes in CO2 emissions that may arise from the economic adjustments to the opening of the NEP. The driving factors and possible mechanisms of the environmental effects of the NEP were analyzed based on the simulation results. The re-simulation for the environmental effects of opening the NEP taking emission control policies into account was performed. The findings showed that the opening of the NEP would increase global CO2 emissions. This effect would gradually increase over time. For China, opening the NEP would initially reduce short- and medium-term CO2 emissions owing to upgrades of sectoral structure, while ultimately elevating emissions in the long run due to a large expansion in trade and the economy. The economic growth driven by commercial use of the NEP would tend to optimize the Chinese sectoral and energy structure in the short run. Notably, emission control policies would markedly affect the aforementioned environmental outcomes of opening the NEP.
期刊介绍:
Transport Policy is an international journal aimed at bridging the gap between theory and practice in transport. Its subject areas reflect the concerns of policymakers in government, industry, voluntary organisations and the public at large, providing independent, original and rigorous analysis to understand how policy decisions have been taken, monitor their effects, and suggest how they may be improved. The journal treats the transport sector comprehensively, and in the context of other sectors including energy, housing, industry and planning. All modes are covered: land, sea and air; road and rail; public and private; motorised and non-motorised; passenger and freight.