The impact of opening the Arctic Northeast Passage on China's carbon emissions

IF 6.3 2区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS
Laike Yang, Miaomiao Jiang
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The increase in shipping along Arctic routes has resulted in an increasing need for the environmental effects of shipping to be considered. Existing studies on the environmental impact of Arctic routes have focused mainly on shipping operations and have paid little attention to the dynamic features of opening new shipping routes. In light of the continuing retreat of Arctic sea ice, this study aimed to predict changes in China's CO2 emissions from a production perspective via scenarios of the opening of the Arctic Northeast Passage (NEP) in different future years (2025, 2030, 2035). A shipping cost model was first developed to calculate the changes in shipping costs resulting from commercial use of the NEP. Then, an energy-environmental version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP-E) model and the GTAP-E 10.0 database were used to simulate the changes in CO2 emissions that may arise from the economic adjustments to the opening of the NEP. The driving factors and possible mechanisms of the environmental effects of the NEP were analyzed based on the simulation results. The re-simulation for the environmental effects of opening the NEP taking emission control policies into account was performed. The findings showed that the opening of the NEP would increase global CO2 emissions. This effect would gradually increase over time. For China, opening the NEP would initially reduce short- and medium-term CO2 emissions owing to upgrades of sectoral structure, while ultimately elevating emissions in the long run due to a large expansion in trade and the economy. The economic growth driven by commercial use of the NEP would tend to optimize the Chinese sectoral and energy structure in the short run. Notably, emission control policies would markedly affect the aforementioned environmental outcomes of opening the NEP.

开放北极东北航道对中国碳排放的影响
随着北极航线航运的增加,越来越需要考虑航运对环境的影响。现有关于北极航线环境影响的研究主要集中在航运运营方面,很少关注新航线开辟的动态特征。鉴于北极海冰的持续消退,本研究旨在通过北极东北航道(NEP)在未来不同年份(2025、2030、2035)的开辟情景,从生产角度预测中国二氧化碳排放量的变化。首先开发了一个航运成本模型,以计算商业使用东北航道所带来的航运成本变化。然后,利用全球贸易分析项目(GTAP-E)模型的能源-环境版本和 GTAP-E 10.0 数据库,模拟了因开放 NEP 而进行的经济调整可能导致的二氧化碳排放量的变化。根据模拟结果分析了国家环保政策对环境影响的驱动因素和可能机制。在考虑排放控制政策的情况下,对开放国家环保政策的环境影响进行了重新模拟。结果表明,开放新经济伙伴关系将增加全球二氧化碳排放量。随着时间的推移,这种影响会逐渐增加。对中国而言,由于部门结构的升级,开放新经济伙伴关系最初会减少短期和中期的二氧化碳排放量,但由于贸易和经济的大幅扩张,最终会增加长期的排放量。新经济政策的商业应用所推动的经济增长将在短期内优化中国的部门和能源结构。值得注意的是,排放控制政策将显著影响上述开放新经济政策的环境结果。
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来源期刊
Transport Policy
Transport Policy Multiple-
CiteScore
12.10
自引率
10.30%
发文量
282
期刊介绍: Transport Policy is an international journal aimed at bridging the gap between theory and practice in transport. Its subject areas reflect the concerns of policymakers in government, industry, voluntary organisations and the public at large, providing independent, original and rigorous analysis to understand how policy decisions have been taken, monitor their effects, and suggest how they may be improved. The journal treats the transport sector comprehensively, and in the context of other sectors including energy, housing, industry and planning. All modes are covered: land, sea and air; road and rail; public and private; motorised and non-motorised; passenger and freight.
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