A novel method for long-term power demand prediction using enhanced data decomposition and neural network with integrated uncertainty analysis: A Cuba case study
Manuel Soto Calvo , Han Soo Lee , Sylvester William Chisale
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
This study developed a methodological approach for long-term electricity demand forecasting and applied it to the electricity demand in Cuba, which is crucial for transitioning from a fossil fuel-dependent system to renewable energy sources. The methodology employs enhanced complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (ECEEMDAN) applied for obtaining long-term trends from historical electricity usage data decomposition, combined with a long short-term memory (LSTM) deep learning model for prediction. Comprehensive datasets, including historical electricity consumption, economic indicators, and demographic data, are utilized in the analysis. Monte Carlo simulations, then, are integrated to address uncertainties in prediction and explore 50 different scenarios of future electricity demand. The study forecasts varying scenarios for the energy demand of Cuba by 2050, with the extreme low scenario projecting a decrease of up to 7.9% compared to the 2019 level. This research offers a groundbreaking framework specifically designed to aid Cuba's energy sector stakeholders in informed decision-making during this critical energy transition. The adaptability of the methodology makes it applicable for long-term projections in various sectors, offering a reliable tool for global decision makers.
期刊介绍:
Applied Energy serves as a platform for sharing innovations, research, development, and demonstrations in energy conversion, conservation, and sustainable energy systems. The journal covers topics such as optimal energy resource use, environmental pollutant mitigation, and energy process analysis. It welcomes original papers, review articles, technical notes, and letters to the editor. Authors are encouraged to submit manuscripts that bridge the gap between research, development, and implementation. The journal addresses a wide spectrum of topics, including fossil and renewable energy technologies, energy economics, and environmental impacts. Applied Energy also explores modeling and forecasting, conservation strategies, and the social and economic implications of energy policies, including climate change mitigation. It is complemented by the open-access journal Advances in Applied Energy.