Future changes in the vertical structure of severe convective storm environments over the U.S. central Great Plains

IF 4.8 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Isaac Davis, Funing Li, Daniel R. Chavas
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Abstract

Abstract The effect of warming on severe convective storm potential is commonly explained in terms of changes in vertically-integrated (“bulk”) environmental parameters, such as CAPE and 0–6-km shear. However, such events are known to depend on details of the vertical structure of the thermodynamic and kinematic environment that can change independently of these bulk parameters. This work examines how warming may affect the complete vertical structure of these environments for fixed ranges of values of high CAPE and bulk shear, using data over the central Great Plains from two high-performing climate models (CNRM and MPI). To first order, projected changes in the vertical sounding structure is consistent between the two models: the environment warms approximately uniformly with height at constant relative humidity and the shear profile remains relatively constant. The boundary layer becomes slightly drier (−2–6% relative humidity) while the free troposphere becomes slightly moister (+1–3%), with a slight increase in moist static energy deficit aloft with stronger magnitude in CNRM. CNRM indicates enhanced low-level shear and storm-relative helicity associated with stronger hodograph curvature in the lowest 2 km, whereas MPI shows near zero change. Both models strongly underestimate shear below 1 km compared to ERA5, indicating large uncertainty in projecting subtle changes in the low-level flow structure in climate models. Evaluation of the net effect of these modest thermodynamic and kinematic changes on severe convective storm outcomes cannot be ascertained here but could be explored in simulation experiments.
美国中部大平原强对流风暴环境垂直结构的未来变化
摘要 暖化对强对流风暴潜势的影响通常用垂直整合("总体")环境参数的变化来解释,例如 CAPE 和 0-6 公里切变。然而,众所周知,此类事件取决于热力学和运动学环境垂直结构的细节,而这些细节的变化可能与这些总体参数无关。这项工作利用两个高性能气候模式(CNRM 和 MPI)在大平原中部的数据,研究了在高 CAPE 和体切变的固定值范围内,气候变暖会如何影响这些环境的完整垂直结构。首先,两个模式对垂直探测结构变化的预测是一致的:在相对湿度不变的情况下,环境随着高度的增加而变暖,切变剖面保持相对不变。边界层略微变干(相对湿度-2-6%),而自由对流层略微变湿(+1-3%),高空湿静态能量不足略有增加,在中国气象局模式下幅度更大。CNRM 显示低空切变和风暴相关卷流增强,与最低 2 公里处更强的霍多图曲率有关,而 MPI 显示变化几乎为零。与ERA5相比,两个模式都严重低估了1公里以下的切变,这表明气候模式预测低空气流结构的微妙变化存在很大的不确定性。这里无法确定这些适度的热力学和运动学变化对强对流风暴结果的净影响,但可以在模拟实验中进行探索。
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来源期刊
Journal of Climate
Journal of Climate 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
9.30
自引率
14.30%
发文量
490
审稿时长
7.5 months
期刊介绍: The Journal of Climate (JCLI) (ISSN: 0894-8755; eISSN: 1520-0442) publishes research that advances basic understanding of the dynamics and physics of the climate system on large spatial scales, including variability of the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and cryosphere; past, present, and projected future changes in the climate system; and climate simulation and prediction.
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