In-depth Exploration of Temperature Trends in Morocco: Combining Traditional Methods of Mann Kendall with Innovative ITA and IPTA Approaches

Abstract

This study examines trends in minimum and maximum temperatures at various climate stations located in different regions of Morocco for a period of five decades (1970 to 2019). Mann–Kendall, Sen’s estimator, Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) and Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) were used in the analysis. The results show significant fluctuations, at different time scales, between minimum and maximum temperatures at all stations. In coastal areas, such as Rabat Sale, minimum temperatures fell during January and February while other months saw increases. Average minimum temperatures in Rabat Sale tend to fall by 0.5 °C. On the other hand, maximum temperatures in Rabat Sale rose by 0.2 °C. A decrease of 0.4 °C for T_min and 1.6 °C for T_max were observed in higher continental regions, such as Meknes. Other stations, such as Fez Sais (0.6 °C T_min and 2.6 °C T_max) and Taza (1.1 °C T_min and 2.6 °C T_max) showed an upward trend. Trends also vary, with notable increases in minimum and maximum temperatures, indicating different climatic dynamics according to altitude and locality. In particular, the ITA highlights a significant increase in annual maximum temperatures, with a P-value < 0.05 and trend slopes ranging from 0.0015 °C per year in Rabat Sale to 0.0076 °C per year in Taza. In addition, the IPTA results confirm diversity of upward and downward trends on monthly and seasonal scales, highlighting impact of geographical factors such as proximity to sea, topography, and continentality that contribute to formation of regional microclimates. The results highlight significant impact of climate change in Morocco.