Development of a risk prediction nomogram for delayed neuropsychiatric sequelae in patients with acute carbon monoxide poisoning.

Abstract

Objectives: Delayed neuropsychiatric sequelae (DNS) are critical complications following acute carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning that can substantially affect the patient's life. Identifying high-risk patients for developing DNS may improve the quality of follow-up care. To date, the predictive DNS determinants are still controversial. Consequently, this study aimed to construct a practical nomogram for predicting DNS in acute CO-poisoned patients.

Methods: This retrospective study was conducted on patients with acute CO poisoning admitted to the Tanta University Poison Control Center (TUPCC) from December 2018 to December 2022. Demographic, toxicological, and initial clinical characteristics data, as well as laboratory investigation results, were recorded for the included patients. After acute recovery, patients were followed up for six months and categorized into patients with and without DNS.

Results: Out of 174 enrolled patients, 38 (21.8%) developed DNS. The initial Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), carboxyhemoglobin (COHb) level, CO exposure duration, oxygen saturation, PaCO₂, and pulse rate were significantly associated with DNS development by univariate analysis. However, the constructed nomogram based on the multivariable regression analysis included three parameters: duration of CO exposure, COHb level, and GCS with adjusted odd ratios of 1.453 (95% CI: 1.116-1.892), 1.262 (95% CI: 1.126-1.415), and 0.619 (95% CI: 0.486-0.787), respectively. The internal validation of the nomogram exhibited excellent discrimination (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.962), good calibration, and satisfactory decision curve analysis for predicting the DNS probability.

Conclusions: The proposed nomogram could be considered a simple, precise, and applicable tool to predict DNS development in acute CO-poisoned patients.