The 2023 global warming spike was driven by El Niño/Southern Oscillation

IF 5.2 1区地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Pub Date : 2024-07-08 DOI:10.5194/egusphere-2024-1937

Shiv Priyam Raghuraman, Brian Soden, Amy Clement, Gabriel Vecchi, Sofia Menemenlis, Wenchang Yang

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Abstract. Global-mean surface temperature rapidly increased 0.27 ± 0.05 K from 2022 to 2023. Such an interannual global warming spike is not unprecedented in the observational record with previous instances occurring in 1956–57 and 1976–77. However, why global warming spikes occur is unknown and the rapid global warming of 2023 has led to concerns that it could have been externally driven. Here we show that climate models that are subject only to internal variability can generate such spikes, but they are an uncommon occurrence (𝑝 = 2.6 ± 0.1 %). However, when a prolonged La Niña immediately precedes an El Niño in the simulations, as occurred in nature in 1956–57, 1976–77, 2022–23, such spikes become much more common (𝑝 = 16.5 ± 0.6 %). Furthermore, we find that nearly all simulated spikes (94 %) are associated with El Niño occurring that year. Thus, our results underscore the importance of El Niño/Southern Oscillation in driving the occurrence of global warming spikes such as the one in 2023, without needing to invoke anthropogenic forcing, such as changes in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases or aerosols, as an explanation.

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厄尔尼诺/南方涛动是 2023 年全球变暖高峰的驱动因素

摘要从2022年到2023年，全球平均地表温度迅速上升了0.27 ± 0.05 K。在观测记录中，这种跨年度的全球变暖峰值并非没有先例，此前曾在1956-57年和1976-77年出现过。然而，全球变暖峰值出现的原因尚不清楚，2023 年的全球快速变暖导致人们担心它可能是由外部因素驱动的。在这里，我们展示了仅受内部变率影响的气候模型可以产生这种峰值，但这种情况并不常见（𝑝 = 2.6 ± 0.1 %）。然而，当模拟的厄尔尼诺现象之前紧接着出现长时间的拉尼娜现象时，就像自然界在 1956-57 年、1976-77 年和 2022-23 年出现的情况一样，这种峰值就会变得更加常见（𝑝 = 16.5 ± 0.6 %）。此外，我们发现几乎所有的模拟峰值（94%）都与当年发生的厄尔尼诺现象有关。因此，我们的研究结果强调了厄尔尼诺/南方涛动在驱动全球变暖峰值（如 2023 年的峰值）发生方面的重要性，而无需引用人为强迫（如大气中温室气体或气溶胶浓度的变化）作为解释。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 地学-气象与大气科学

CiteScore

10.70

自引率

20.60%

发文量

702

审稿时长

6 months

期刊介绍： Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP) is a not-for-profit international scientific journal dedicated to the publication and public discussion of high-quality studies investigating the Earth''s atmosphere and the underlying chemical and physical processes. It covers the altitude range from the land and ocean surface up to the turbopause, including the troposphere, stratosphere, and mesosphere. The main subject areas comprise atmospheric modelling, field measurements, remote sensing, and laboratory studies of gases, aerosols, clouds and precipitation, isotopes, radiation, dynamics, biosphere interactions, and hydrosphere interactions. The journal scope is focused on studies with general implications for atmospheric science rather than investigations that are primarily of local or technical interest.

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