Potential climate change effects on the distribution of urban and sylvatic dengue and yellow fever vectors.

IF 4.9 4区 医学 Q1 PARASITOLOGY
Pathogens and Global Health Pub Date : 2024-07-01 Epub Date: 2024-07-07 DOI:10.1080/20477724.2024.2369377
Alisa Aliaga-Samanez, David Romero, Kris Murray, Marina Segura, Raimundo Real, Jesús Olivero
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Climate change may increase the risk of dengue and yellow fever transmission by urban and sylvatic mosquito vectors. Previous research primarily focused on Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. However, dengue and yellow fever have a complex transmission cycle involving sylvatic vectors. Our aim was to analyze how the distribution of areas favorable to both urban and sylvatic vectors could be modified as a consequence of climate change. We projected, to future scenarios, baseline distribution models already published for these vectors based on the favorability function, and mapped the areas where mosquitoes' favorability could increase, decrease or remain stable in the near (2041-2060) and distant (2061-2080) future. Favorable areas for the presence of dengue and yellow fever vectors show little differences in the future compared to the baseline models, with changes being perceptible only at regional scales. The model projections predict dengue vectors expanding in West and Central Africa and in South-East Asia, reaching Borneo. Yellow fever vectors could spread in West and Central Africa and in the Amazon. In some locations of Europe, the models suggest a reestablishment of Ae. aegypti, while Ae. albopictus will continue to find new favorable areas. The results underline the need to focus more on vectors Ae. vittatus, Ae. luteocephalus and Ae. africanus in West and Central sub-Saharan Africa, especially Cameroon, Central Africa Republic, and northern Democratic Republic of Congo; and underscore the importance of enhancing entomological monitoring in areas where populations of often overlooked vectors may thrive as a result of climate changes.

气候变化对城市登革热和黄热病病媒分布的潜在影响。
气候变化可能会增加登革热和黄热病通过城市和草原蚊媒传播的风险。以往的研究主要集中在埃及伊蚊和白纹伊蚊。然而,登革热和黄热病的传播周期非常复杂,涉及到水生媒介。我们的目的是分析有利于城市病媒和水生病媒的地区分布如何因气候变化而改变。我们根据有利度函数,将已公布的这些病媒的基线分布模型预测到未来情景,并绘制了在近期(2041-2060 年)和远期(2061-2080 年)蚊子有利度可能增加、减少或保持稳定的地区。与基线模型相比,未来登革热和黄热病病媒出现的有利地区差异不大,只有在区域范围内才能感受到变化。根据模型预测,登革热病媒将在西非和中非以及东南亚扩展,并到达婆罗洲。黄热病病媒可能会在西非和中非以及亚马逊地区蔓延。在欧洲的一些地方,模型显示埃及蚁将重新出现,而白喉蚁将继续寻找新的有利地区。这些结果突出表明,有必要更加关注撒哈拉以南非洲西部和中部,特别是喀麦隆、中非共和国和刚果民主共和国北部的媒介蚊 Ae.vittatus、Ae.luteocephalus 和 Ae.Africanus;并强调了加强昆虫学监测的重要性,在这些地区,经常被忽视的媒介蚊数量可能会因气候变化而增加。
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来源期刊
Pathogens and Global Health
Pathogens and Global Health PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH-PARASITOLOGY
CiteScore
6.00
自引率
0.00%
发文量
60
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: Pathogens and Global Health is a journal of infectious disease and public health that focuses on the translation of molecular, immunological, genomics and epidemiological knowledge into control measures for global health threat. The journal publishes original innovative research papers, reviews articles and interviews policy makers and opinion leaders on health subjects of international relevance. It provides a forum for scientific, ethical and political discussion of new innovative solutions for controlling and eradicating infectious diseases, with particular emphasis on those diseases affecting the poorest regions of the world.
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