Spatial-Temporal Dynamics of Gas Consumption in England and Wales: Assessing the Residential Sector Using Sequence Analysis

IF 2 4区社会学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy Pub Date : 2024-06-20 DOI:10.1007/s12061-024-09584-9

Cameron Ward, Caitlin Robinson, Alexander Singleton, Francisco Rowe

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Abstract

The UK residential sector is energy inefficient and has an overwhelming reliance on natural gas as a heating source. For the UK to meet its 2050 net zero obligations, the sector will need to go through a process of decarbonisation. Previous studies acknowledge the spatial disparities of household energy consumption, but have neglected how consumption varies over time. This paper advances such shortcomings via a sequence and clustering analysis to identify common gas consumption trajectories within neighbourhoods in England and Wales between 2010 and 2020. Four clusters are identified: “Very High to High Consumption”; “High to Medium Consumption”; “Medium to Low Consumption” and “Low to Very Low Consumption”. The clusters were contextualised using spatial datasets representing the socio-economic and built environment. Across all clusters, the proportion of energy inefficient dwellings were high, but there was a trend of high consumption associated with lower proportions of energy efficient dwellings. The results provide useful insight to policy makers and practitioners about where best to target electrification and retrofitting measures to facilitate a cleaner and more equitable residential sector. Policy targeting of areas with continual high gas consumption will accelerate the decarbonisation process, whilst targeting areas who continually under consume will likely enhance household health and well-being.

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英格兰和威尔士天然气消费的时空动态：利用序列分析评估住宅部门

英国住宅部门的能源效率低下，而且绝大部分依赖天然气作为供暖来源。为了实现 2050 年的净零排放目标，英国住宅部门需要经历一个去碳化的过程。以往的研究承认家庭能源消耗存在空间差异，但却忽视了能源消耗随时间的变化情况。本文通过序列和聚类分析，确定了 2010 年至 2020 年英格兰和威尔士居民区内常见的天然气消费轨迹，从而弥补了上述不足。本文确定了四个聚类："极高至高消耗"、"高至中等消耗"、"中等至低消耗 "和 "低至极低消耗"。利用代表社会经济和建筑环境的空间数据集对这些组群进行了背景分析。在所有聚类中，低能效住宅的比例都很高，但有一种趋势是，高能效住宅的比例越低，能耗就越高。这些结果为政策制定者和从业人员提供了有益的启示，使他们了解电气化和改造措施的最佳目标，从而促进更清洁、更公平的住宅部门的发展。针对天然气消耗量持续偏高的地区制定政策，将加快去碳化进程，而针对天然气消耗量持续偏低的地区制定政策，则有可能提高家庭的健康和福祉。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy Multiple-

CiteScore

3.80

自引率

5.30%

发文量

期刊介绍： Description The journal has an applied focus: it actively promotes the importance of geographical research in real world settings It is policy-relevant: it seeks both a readership and contributions from practitioners as well as academics The substantive foundation is spatial analysis: the use of quantitative techniques to identify patterns and processes within geographic environments The combination of these points, which are fully reflected in the naming of the journal, establishes a unique position in the marketplace. RationaleA geographical perspective has always been crucial to the understanding of the social and physical organisation of the world around us. The techniques of spatial analysis provide a powerful means for the assembly and interpretation of evidence, and thus to address critical questions about issues such as crime and deprivation, immigration and demographic restructuring, retailing activity and employment change, resource management and environmental improvement. Many of these issues are equally important to academic research as they are to policy makers and Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy aims to close the gap between these two perspectives by providing a forum for discussion of applied research in a range of different contexts Topical and interdisciplinaryIncreasingly government organisations, administrative agencies and private businesses are requiring research to support their ‘evidence-based’ strategies or policies. Geographical location is critical in much of this work which extends across a wide range of disciplines including demography, actuarial sciences, statistics, public sector planning, business planning, economics, epidemiology, sociology, social policy, health research, environmental management. FocusApplied Spatial Analysis and Policy will draw on applied research from diverse problem domains, such as transport, policing, education, health, environment and leisure, in different international contexts. The journal will therefore provide insights into the variations in phenomena that exist across space, it will provide evidence for comparative policy analysis between domains and between locations, and stimulate ideas about the translation of spatial analysis methods and techniques across varied policy contexts. It is essential to know how to measure, monitor and understand spatial distributions, many of which have implications for those with responsibility to plan and enhance the society and the environment in which we all exist. Readership and Editorial BoardAs a journal focused on applications of methods of spatial analysis, Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy will be of interest to scholars and students in a wide range of academic fields, to practitioners in government and administrative agencies and to consultants in private sector organisations. The Editorial Board reflects the international and multidisciplinary nature of the journal.