Rational sustainability

IF 0.7 Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Alex Edmans
{"title":"Rational sustainability","authors":"Alex Edmans","doi":"10.1111/jacf.12609","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>ESG is under attack from all sides. Opponents object to the incorporation of environmental, social, and governance (“ESG”) issues in investment decisions, arguing that it allows fund managers to pursue their own agendas at the expense of client returns. Proposed solutions range from disinvesting from ESG funds to banning ESG outright. In January 2024, Republican lawmakers in New Hampshire introduced a bill to prohibit the state from investing in funds that consider ESG factors; violation would be a felony punishable by up to 20 years in prison.</p><p>Supporters range from true believers, who view ESG as a sure-fire way to achieve both financial returns and social impact, to opportunists who saw ESG – at least historically – as a means to exploit a bubble. Asset managers launched ESG funds; companies courted capital, customers, and colleagues by touting their ESG credentials; and authors, influencers, and professors reinvented themselves as ESG experts even if they never previously cared for the topic. But both true believers and opportunists are recognizing the shifting sands – the former are ploughing ahead but calling it something different; the latter are reversing course and looking for the next fad. In June 2023, BlackRock's Larry Fink, a previously outspoken ESG supporter, announced that he'd no longer use the ESG term because it had become “weaponized,” but not change his actual stance. A January 2024 <i>Financial Times</i> article noted that just six funds citing ESG factors launched in the second half of 2023, as compared with 55 in the first half.1 On the same day, the <i>Wall Street Journal</i> dubbed ESG “the latest dirty word in Corporate America.”2</p><p>Alongside the true believers and opportunists lies a third group of supporters. They believe that the <i>practice</i> of integrating some – but not all – ESG factors, can create value, but the <i>term</i> “ESG” has several problems. In a 2023 article entitled “The End of ESG,” I argued that ESG is “extremely important” because it is critical to long-term value and thus should be of interest to anyone, but the term “ESG” implies that it's niche. I also claimed that it is “nothing special” compared to other intangible assets such as productivity, innovation, and culture, but the term “ESG” puts it on a pedestal.3 This is far more than a semantic issue since the term ends up affecting the practice; the “incorporation” of environmental, social, and governance factors sometimes morphs into their “prioritization” or “exclusive consideration.” Some companies allocate capital to initiatives that can be labelled ESG over those that might create more long-term value, or make misguided decisions designed to improve ESG metrics even when they are not material to the business. Some investors buy a stock that satisfies ESG criteria with little regard for its price, or automatically vote against the appointment of a new director if it does not achieve their board diversity target, irrespective of that director's other credentials. Some clients pile into funds marketed as ESG irrespective of their actual performance. On the flipside, ESG skeptics have an allergic reaction to funds labelled “ESG” even when the funds use ESG for purely financial goals.</p><p>“The End of ESG” was the first in a series of three 2023 articles I wrote to address the problems with ESG. In that first one, I advocated that the ESG <i>practice</i> become both more mainstream and more nuanced.4 In the second, I argued that the <i>term</i> itself should be scrapped.5 And in the third, I highlighted yet another issue: the tendency of the term “ESG” be replace clear-headed thinking by implying that it's somehow different from mainstream business.6 As a result of this tendency, investors and corporate managers are misled into thinking that the insights from decades of research don't apply and resort to “gut feel” when practicing ESG.</p><p>But if we scrap ESG, what do we replace it with? Retiring the term without changing the practice fails to address the many legitimate concerns about ESG. Abandoning the practice entirely will throw the baby out with the bathwater and lose the many benefits of considering ESG factors in corporate and investment decisions. In “The End of ESG” I suggested that we replace the term with either “long-term value” or “intangible assets,” but neither term is perfect. ESG supporters argue that, even though in theory “long-term value” should lead us to consider any relevant factor, including ESG, in practice we may not, and “ESG” usefully reminds us to do so. “Intangible assets” has the virtue of directing us to look beyond tangible factors to create value, but we may only think to study brand and innovation rather than a company's impact on the environment and communities. A separate issue is that practitioners typically consider intangible assets only for financial reasons, but ESG may be pursued for social objectives.</p><p>This article proposes the term and practice of “Rational Sustainability” as an alternative to ESG. “Sustainability” refers to the goal: creating sustainable, long-term value, which is relevant to all job functions and political beliefs. It considers all factors that create value, regardless of whether they fall under an ESG label, and deprioritizes immaterial factors even if they can be called ESG. “Rational” refers to the approach: it recognizes diminishing returns and trade-offs; it is based on evidence and analysis; it questions many widespread sustainability conventions and practices rather than following the herd; and it guards against being caught up in irrational sustainability bubbles.7</p><p>I now go through these 10 features in turn.</p><p>The current practice of ESG gives special status to something just because it can be called ESG. ESG funds attract inflows even if not justified by performance; business schools boost their league table ranking by reporting more hours of ESG teaching; some investors, employees and customers put more weight on a company's ESG claims than delivering great returns, being a great place to work, or offering great products.</p><p>Certain ESG advocates argue that the label should be expanded so that more activities can get credit. Some enlarge it to “EESG,” with an extra E for Employees as they are too important to be considered a subset of S;11 others argue that any extra E should stand for Equity.12 When I was a panelist at an ESG conference, an audience member questioned why we were using such an outdated term and advocated BESG given the importance of biodiversity. Companies may end up in an arms’ race to add letters and move to BEEESG, just as some organizations focus more on expanding LGBT to LGBTQIA2S+ rather than actually being inclusive.</p><p>Such labeling can mask the lack of action. In a recent working paper, three economists calculate that, despite the supposed surge of ESG investing, ESG-related portfolio tilts represented only 6% of the investment industry's total assets in 2021.13 A 2005 <i>Journal of Finance</i> article found that, when a mutual fund changes its name to reflect a current “hot” style, it enjoyed 28% extra inflows despite no improvement in performance and irrespective of whether its holdings match its new name.14</p><p>Rational Sustainability is concerned with outcomes, not labels. The goal of sustainability is to create long-term value; a fund that adds “ESG” to its name without changing its holdings or engagement approach is not investing more sustainably. A fund that adds ESG to its name <i>and</i> changes its holdings is also not investing more sustainably if those actions do not enhance long-term returns.15</p><p>Rational Sustainability also both widens and focuses our perspective. It widens our perspective by stressing the need to consider any factor that creates sustainable value, even if it does not fall under an ESG label – such as productivity, innovation and culture. It focuses our perspective by cautioning against pursuing a factor simply because it falls under the ESG umbrella, if it does not create sustainable value. Yet Rational Sustainability may be superior to “long-term value”, as the inclusion of “sustainability” highlights the need to consider societal factors that may have otherwise been overlooked.</p><p>Why is there such a focus on labels? One reason is that there are instrumental benefits from being called ESG – funds enjoy inflows and companies attract customers. What matters is not so much doing ESG but being seen to do so.</p><p>Companies should instead ask themselves: “If you couldn't tell anyone you were doing it, would you still do it?” The answer might be “No” for many ESG initiatives, since their only benefit is instrumental. In contrast, a word that is often paired with “sustain” is “self”; we have self-sustaining organizations, ecosystems, populations, and organisms. Sustainability is pursued for intrinsic reasons – that is, because it's good for you. It allows organizations, ecosystems, populations, and organisms to thrive for decades, even centuries.</p><p>An instrumental approach to ESG undermines one of its key rationales. In theory, there should be no need for the ESG acronym to have ever been coined. Executives should know to invest in anything – including ESG – that ultimately creates long-term value, just as they'd improve a company's productivity, innovation, and culture, even though there's no PIC acronym. However, one rationale for ESG is that the financial benefits of ESG (unlike PIC) are hard to predict, no matter how far-sighted the executive. An explicit ESG objective could encourage an executive to make an investment because of its ESG benefits, and those benefits ultimately manifest in financial returns. But because these returns were difficult to forecast, financial considerations alone might not have justified the investment.16 For example, Vodafone launched the mobile money service M-Pesa in 2007 for the social return from improving financial inclusion in Kenya, but was later able to turn this into a financial return by charging a small percentage of every transaction.</p><p>If instead ESG is pursued for instrumental reasons, this narrows the freedom that ESG provides. M-Pesa does not improve any of the common ESG metrics that companies are scored on, such as carbon emissions, water usage, CEO-to-worker pay ratio, or gender diversity. It would have never been sanctioned under an instrumental approach to ESG. Sustainability frees a company to create long-term value, irrespective of whether it will get a gold star for doing so.</p><p>Generating long-term, sustainable value is widely accepted as being the core function of business. Finance 101 teaches us that shareholder value is the present value of <i>all future</i> cash flows; any business decision should be evaluated by its long-term consequences. Sustainability is thus the responsibility of every executive within a company, irrespective of your job title.</p><p>In contrast, ESG is often viewed as a peripheral cost center. In some asset management firms, the investment team focuses on forecasting long-term cash flows; ESG is a side analysis done by a separate team so that they can tell clients they are “doing ESG.” They then hire “ESG integration” specialists to force fund managers to have at least a cursory glance at the ESG analysis rather than reaching for the bin. Sustainability recognizes the criticality of analyzing a company's impact on society, because many of those impacts will ultimately feedback and affect its profits. The analysis may still be conducted by a separate department given its specialist nature, and there may still be integration professionals given the expertise required, but such analyses are eagerly welcomed and would still be even if the fund managers could not tell their clients.</p><p>A word often used interchangeably with “sustainability” and “ESG” is “purpose,” which I advocated in <i>Grow the Pie</i>. I continue to strongly believe in the power of purpose to generate financial and social value. However, at least as commonly practiced, “purpose” has been reduced to a slogan; the branding team comes up with a snappy-sounding purpose that has little effect on a company's decisions. Fund manager Terry Smith famously criticized Unilever for coming up with a “purpose” for mayonnaise when it is nothing more highbrow than salads and sandwiches. Ben &amp; Jerry's claims that “we believe that ice cream can change the world” but it is unclear whether executives truly believe this and, if they did, how it would affect any corporate decision. If so, purpose has no purpose.</p><p>I've referred to the goal of sustainability as “long-term value,” but been deliberately vague about what this value is. Is it purely financial value, or does it include social value? And if it does, which societal objectives, and how much financial value should you be willing to sacrifice for them?</p><p>In “The End of ESG,” I argued that ESG investing is often just investing, because an investor should consider all factors relevant for generating long-term returns, both ESG and non-ESG. However, I acknowledged that one way in which ESG investing is <i>not</i> investing is that investors may have non-financial objectives, such as reducing negative externalities and creating positive externalities. Rational Sustainability allows for such non-financial goals. The value that it creates can be a mix of financial and social value, and thus it fully accommodates investors’ willingness to sacrifice the former for the latter. However, Rational Sustainability differs from ESG in three ways.</p><p>First, any societal objectives are pursued in a sustainable way: the goal is a mix of <i>long-term</i> financial and social value. Targeting diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) by hiring minorities irrespective of their ability may improve a company's short-term DEI statistics, but backfire in the long term as those hires do not succeed and leave. The company itself suffers worse performance, hindering its ability to hire in the future. Thus, workers also lose out.</p><p>Second, any societal objectives are pursued in a rational way. This involves recognizing diminishing returns and trade-offs, as Principle #7 will discuss in more detail. These trade-offs include trade-offs with financial returns. It can still be entirely rational to operate in the zone of diminishing – even negative – financial returns because financial returns are not investors’ only objective. However, investors should be aware of the trade-offs so that they understand the financial sacrifice that they are making.17 The trade-offs also include those with other societal returns, such as the fact that rapid decarbonization may lead to a significant loss of jobs. Rationality also involves using evidence to inform the strategies that are most effective in creating social returns, rather than (for example) divesting from all emitting companies because gut feel suggests that it would be effective.18</p><p>Third, Rational Sustainability emphasizes the need to be explicit about any non-financial objectives. To achieve long-term goals, you need to state what those goals are. Internally, it clarifies what employees should aim for; externally, it brings transparency and allows customers to go somewhere else if they're not aligned. A fund may choose to sacrifice financial returns to address climate change, but it needs to make this sacrifice clear in its prospectus rather than claiming that everything's a win-win. Otherwise, if the fund ends up underperforming, clients may withdraw their money as they were promised outperformance.</p><p>The above consideration also guards against the risk of becoming an “ESG Chameleon.” Some ESG advocates promote ESG based on claims that ESG improves financial performance, often backed up by flimsy research parading correlations between ESG and stock returns. When this research has subsequently been shown to be flawed due to data mining, omitted variables, or sample selection issues, they sometimes respond “well that was never the motive for ESG anyway; it was to save the world.” When evidence is presented suggesting that ESG's social and environmental impact is limited,19 they sometimes respond, “but the reason for ESG is to invest in companies that reflect our values.” Rational Sustainability highlights the importance of being clear about one's objective.20</p><p>The permissiveness of Rational Sustainability highlights that the definition of “long-term value” is an area about which there <i>can</i> be legitimate disagreement between Republicans and Democrats, and that some politicization cannot be avoided. Republicans might define long-term value as exclusively financial value, while Democrats may argue that it should also include social value. There may also be legitimate disagreement about which social objectives should be included and their relative importance. However, there should be less disagreement that, whatever objectives are chosen, they should be pursued in a rational and sustainable manner.</p><p>The next five principles highlight the key features of “rational” sustainability. In theory, there should be no need for such emphasis because people should always act rationally – just as in theory there should be no need to emphasize sustainability since people should always think long-term. However, there is widespread evidence of irrationality in many other contexts,21 and irrationality is likely even more severe for sustainability given confirmation bias. Sustainability advocates may believe that sustainability is always beneficial; detractors may think it is always harmful.</p><p>One important example of irrationality is in the interpretation of data and evidence. A huge number of sustainability studies abound, often written by commercial organizations with limited research credentials and whose goal is a PR boost rather than the truth. They get it by claiming what people want to hear – that sustainability always improves performance. Often, these studies are lapped up uncritically by readers who like the findings even if the analysis is weak. In my 2024 book, <i>May Contain Lies</i>,22 I highlight the numerous ways in which people fall for fluff: headlines are written about a study that does not exist; a study exists but doesn't conduct any analysis; the authors claim the opposite of what their analysis finds; the analysis doesn't actually measure sustainability or performance; the authors conducted dozens of analyses and only reported the ones that work; and the authors trumpet causation when there is only a correlation.</p><p>These errors appear so basic that it seems implausible that anyone would fall for them – how could you believe a claim when the results show the opposite? – but rationality goes out of the window when confirmation bias is at play. In contrast, studies uncovering inconvenient truths are dismissed out of hand, as “one study out of many” or as being politically motivated.</p><p>A rational look at the data finds that the evidence is much more nuanced than either side commonly claims. Some ESG factors are associated with higher long-term financial returns, such as corporate governance,23 employee satisfaction,24 and customer satisfaction.25 However, even those results may not be universal: corporate governance is uncorrelated with returns in competitive industries,26 employee satisfaction does not lead to outperformance in countries with heavily regulated labor markets,27 and ESG only generates high returns in crisis periods.28</p><p>In contrast, some of the factors that ESG advocates are particularly passionate about may have no or a negative correlation with returns. Companies that emit more carbon enjoy <i>higher</i> returns29 and these higher returns arise from outperformance, not risk;30 moreover, they are not robust to different methodologies.31 Multiple McKinsey studies claim that diversity is strongly correlated with company performance but they suffer from elementary flaws;32 a review of the highest-quality academic evidence finds a zero or negative link between diversity and company performance.33</p><p>Rather than being piqued by negative findings and wanting to ignore or attract them, a rational response is to use them to practice sustainability more effectively. Knowing that certain factors are not linked to financial performance allows you to focus on the ones that are (if your goal is solely, or predominantly, financial returns). Alternatively, it may prompt you to go deeper and analyze more complex measures of sustainability than the ones featured in the study. The lack of a link between demographic diversity and performance need not imply that DEI has no value, only that demographic diversity is a blunt measure of DEI. In a 2023 working paper, my coauthors and I find that a holistic measure of DEI, which incorporates equity and inclusion, is positively linked to financial performance.34</p><p>In addition to a careful approach to the data, Rational Sustainability involves a careful approach to analysis and logic. Sometimes, caution goes out of the window when considering ESG, viewing it as a “magic word” that defies the need to conduct analysis – for example, the belief that a fund should always boycott fossil fuels due to their ESG risks, and always invest in electric cars due to their ESG opportunities.35 Rational Sustainability involves treating ESG like any other factor. Just as a rational reader applies the same scrutiny to an ESG study as to any other study, a rational investor compares an ESG stock to its price just like any other stock. A company could be risky, but the risks could be more than discounted; it could be attractive but overpriced due to a bubble.</p><p>One potential objection to the concept of “rational” sustainability is that the qualification is unnecessary because there is no such thing as “irrational” sustainability. Sustainability – concern for people and the planet – is a “good thing,” so it cannot possibly be irrational. Such an objection conflates the goal with the approach. Even if the goal is laudable, it can be pursued in either rational or irrational ways. Dieting, exercise, and hard work are generally seen as good things, but you can have irrational dieting, irrational exercise, and irrational hard work. ESG and sustainability are not “magic words” that defy the laws of gravity, or the laws of economics, and are immune to irrationality.</p><p>A second potential objection is that it is unclear how to define “rational.” Aditya may think it's rational to pursue only financial returns, and Beatriz to seek a mixture of financial and social returns. However, this again conflates the goal with the approach. It is entirely reasonable to have non-standard objectives if they are pursued in rational ways. This has long been recognized in the behavioral economics literature. For example, in their 2001 model of prospect theory, Nicholas Barberis, Ming Huang, and Tano Santos note that “While our preferences are nonstandard, this does not mean that they are irrational in any sense: it is not irrational for people to get utility from sources other than consumption, nor is it irrational for them to anticipate these feelings when making decisions.”36</p><p>But how do we define being “pursued in rational ways?” Again, the behavioral economics literature offers guidance: taking all information into account and updating your beliefs according to Bayes’ Rule. Irrationality may come in many forms, such as confirmation bias: rejecting information that contradicts your beliefs, and overweighting information that confirms them. Rationality does not mean that there is only one way to interpret information. There may be legitimate disagreement as to whether an ESG factor will increase or decrease returns, particularly if no research has been conducted on the topic. Where information is ambiguous, rationality means treating it as ambiguous and allowing for differences in opinion, rather than interpreting it in a way that confirms your beliefs about sustainability.</p><p>In January 2024, I was discussing sustainable real estate with two investors, Russell Chaplin and Chris Miller-Jones of Europa Capital. They questioned whether a potential investment should always have more green building certifications than fewer or, having bought a building, whether to follow the common industry trend of trying to get as many certifications as possible. They saw the value of sustainability but recognized the diminishing returns to each additional certification, as well as the increasing costs – both in renovating the building to qualify for certification and investing the time and money to get certified. I then described their approach as “Rational Sustainability.”</p><p>Irrational sustainability involves pursuing a project, investment, or certification just because it is viewed as sustainable. Even if it actually sustainable and has genuine benefits rather than just ticking a box, there will be costs to it – direct financial costs of making the investment, and indirect costs of time diverted from other activities that create financial or social value. In addition, more is not always better; as with any investment, returns are diminishing and can turn negative.</p><p>Rational Sustainability recognizes that sustainability factors are subject to the same laws of gravity as everything else. It encourages us to look at the big picture – rather than getting engrossed with the benefits, to step back and consider the costs. This continues to apply even if our goal is more than financial returns. Estimating the financial cost is necessary to discern whether the additional social payoff is sufficient to outweigh the reduced financial payoff, rather than ploughing straight ahead because social returns are a “good thing.”</p><p>Principle #7 highlighted that, if you consider a given ESG factor, more is not always better. This principle highlights the economic reality that a greater number of ESG factors is not always better.</p><p>Irrational sustainability involves trying to tick as many ESG boxes as possible. The more you tick, the higher your ESG rating will be, and the less likely that customers will boycott you for failing to tick their preferred box. Rational Sustainability recognizes that, while a company has responsibilities to society (either for financial or social reasons), there are limits: Apple should not be culpable if its excellence hastens the decline of BlackBerry, nor if its hiring standards prevent low-quality applicants from getting jobs.37 A company is not responsible for addressing all of society's challenges or pursuing all 17 Sustainable Development Goals; that's the role of governments.</p><p>Rational Sustainability sets boundaries. It establishes a framework for analyzing what a company's responsibilities should and should not be. This framework in turn guides decisions on how to allocate capital, headcount, and time. A company can then be held accountable for delivering on the responsibilities that it has set out. Without such boundaries, anything goes; it is not clear how an executive should navigate trade-offs, or what investors should hold her accountable for.</p><p>In <i>Grow the Pie</i>, I propose two criteria to establish such boundaries.38 One is <i>comparative advantage</i>: a company should focus on those sustainability activities in which it has unique expertise. Vodafone should invest in M-Pesa since it has telecoms expertise; it should not donate money to charity because it has no special ability to evaluate which charities are most worthy or effective.</p><p>A second is <i>materiality</i>. If a company's only goal is financial returns, this entails <i>business materiality</i>: a company should prioritize those stakeholders that are most important for its business model. Apple should invest in specialist suppliers such as Corning, which provides the touch-screen glass for its iPhones, but commodity suppliers are less material. If a company's goal includes social returns, this also involves <i>intrinsic materiality</i>: the non-financial objectives its shareholders and stakeholders care about (rather than, for instance, the ones that happen to be in the news).</p><p>My criteria are certainly not the only set of legitimate criteria. Companies may choose their own criteria, but <i>some</i> criteria are needed otherwise decisions are arbitrary.</p><p>The irrationality that plagues sustainability is not limited to confirmation bias. Another behavioral bias that is particularly relevant for sustainability is herd mentality, where people pile into something because everyone else is doing so. Professors rush to teach courses on ESG irrespective of expertise, companies like Target, Bud Light and Disney raced to embrace liberal issues without thinking about their conservative customers, and investors jump on the latest DEI fad.</p><p>One example of the latter is the big market delusion that surrounded electric vehicles (“EVs”) in early 2021.39 Investors were so excited about the sustainability credentials of EVs – their potential to generate financial returns and address climate change – that they bid up the values of EV stocks to nonsensically high levels. Adding up the price of each EV company led to an implausible value for the total EV industry, even under the most optimistic scenario for the uptake of EVs. However, investors forgot this “adding-up constraint” in their mania.</p><p>A second irrationality is the “zero-risk bias,” which leads people to seek the complete elimination of a risk, even if its substantial reduction is sufficient. As an everyday example, consumers pay for overpriced extended warranties even if the risk of a breakdown is already small, to reduce it to zero.40 In a sustainability context, many companies have signed up to be “net zero,” perhaps due to the attractiveness of “zero.” However, society as a whole can be net zero as a whole without every company being net zero. Some industries, such as reforestation, will naturally be carbon-negative; for other industries, such as construction, it is impossible to be net zero without the use of offsets, whose validity and effectiveness has been challenged and whose purchase is inconsistent with comparative advantage.41</p><p>In addition to guarding against your own irrationality, Rational Sustainability allows investors to exploit market irrationality – selling sustainable companies that are overpriced, or buying sustainable companies that are underpriced because they do not tick ESG boxes. One might question whether it is responsible – sustainable, even – to exploit others’ irrationality. Launching funds with ESG labels to capitalize on people's misbelief that ESG always pays off might be seen as irresponsible.42 This is why I have referred to “market irrationality” rather than “consumer irrationality.” Participants in financial markets who choose to trade individual stocks when they could buy mutual funds should know that they are swimming with sharks. Moreover, exploiting irrationality corrects mispricing, making market prices more accurate signals for corporate decision makers.43 For example, deflating the EV bubble will prevent EV companies from raising cheap equity when the industry is already over-capacity and needs a shake-out; buying underpriced sustainable companies will help the market recognize their value.</p><p>Principle #9 highlighted how the herd mentality can lead to market bubbles and crashes. It can similarly distort executives’ decisions by leading to them taking actions indiscriminately, just because everybody else is doing it.</p><p>For example, many companies have signed up for net zero without even understanding what “net” or “zero” is. Starting with the former, it is not obvious whether it is appropriate to net off negative emissions, thus treating them as equal to emissions reduction. Moving to the latter, it is unclear how to define zero due to indirect positive effects (manufacturing semiconductors releases greenhouse gases, but semiconductors may be used in solar panels) and indirect negative effects (electric cars may use electricity from fossil fuels). Furthermore, it is not clear whether every company needs to be net zero even if society should be, whether firms have calculated the financial cost of net zero (compared to, say, a 95% reduction in emissions), and whether “net benefit” (which includes environmental and social impacts beyond carbon) is a better target than “net zero.”</p><p>Principle #7 highlighted the importance of stepping back and looking at the big picture of a decision – its costs as well as its benefits. Challenging and questioning involves stepping back even further and looking at the big picture of the problem the decision is trying to solve. For example, in 2023 the Financial Conduct Authority, a UK regulator, proposed to regulate the diversity of a company's workforce under the claim that their Consumer Duty is to ensure fair provision of financial services to customers.44 But if this is their goal, then the solution is to regulate directly the fairness of provision of financial services to customers, not the demographic diversity of employees which is very far removed.45 However, given frequent calls to regulate diversity from pressure groups, and the herd mentality of following regulators in other countries, a particular regulator may pounce on doing so without asking what problem it is a solution to, and whether a non-sustainability regulation would solve it more effectively.</p><p>This article has proposed “Rational Sustainability” as an alternative to ESG – a term and set of practices that started off with much promise and good intentions but has failed to achieve this promise, owing to naïve implementations by true believers, blind opposition by equally zealous adversaries, and exploitation of the ESG movement by opportunists and imposters.</p><p>Rational Sustainability is sustainable. Its goal is long-term sustainable value, not political objectives; it includes everything that improves long-term value irrespective of whether it is labelled ESG; it is pursued by companies even if they can't tell anyone they're doing so; it is embraced as a core profit center not resented as a peripheral cost center; and it accommodates different definitions of value.</p><p>Rational Sustainability is also rational. Its approach is based on evidence and clear-headed analysis; it recognizes diminishing returns and trade-offs; it sets boundaries rather than thinking that “anything goes”; it guards against your own irrationality and capitalizes on market irrationality; and it challenges and questions rather than follow the herd.</p><p>Rational Sustainability has the potential to create long-term value for shareholders and society, fulfilling the promise that ESG failed to.</p>","PeriodicalId":46789,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Corporate Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jacf.12609","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Applied Corporate Finance","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jacf.12609","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

Abstract

ESG is under attack from all sides. Opponents object to the incorporation of environmental, social, and governance (“ESG”) issues in investment decisions, arguing that it allows fund managers to pursue their own agendas at the expense of client returns. Proposed solutions range from disinvesting from ESG funds to banning ESG outright. In January 2024, Republican lawmakers in New Hampshire introduced a bill to prohibit the state from investing in funds that consider ESG factors; violation would be a felony punishable by up to 20 years in prison.

Supporters range from true believers, who view ESG as a sure-fire way to achieve both financial returns and social impact, to opportunists who saw ESG – at least historically – as a means to exploit a bubble. Asset managers launched ESG funds; companies courted capital, customers, and colleagues by touting their ESG credentials; and authors, influencers, and professors reinvented themselves as ESG experts even if they never previously cared for the topic. But both true believers and opportunists are recognizing the shifting sands – the former are ploughing ahead but calling it something different; the latter are reversing course and looking for the next fad. In June 2023, BlackRock's Larry Fink, a previously outspoken ESG supporter, announced that he'd no longer use the ESG term because it had become “weaponized,” but not change his actual stance. A January 2024 Financial Times article noted that just six funds citing ESG factors launched in the second half of 2023, as compared with 55 in the first half.1 On the same day, the Wall Street Journal dubbed ESG “the latest dirty word in Corporate America.”2

Alongside the true believers and opportunists lies a third group of supporters. They believe that the practice of integrating some – but not all – ESG factors, can create value, but the term “ESG” has several problems. In a 2023 article entitled “The End of ESG,” I argued that ESG is “extremely important” because it is critical to long-term value and thus should be of interest to anyone, but the term “ESG” implies that it's niche. I also claimed that it is “nothing special” compared to other intangible assets such as productivity, innovation, and culture, but the term “ESG” puts it on a pedestal.3 This is far more than a semantic issue since the term ends up affecting the practice; the “incorporation” of environmental, social, and governance factors sometimes morphs into their “prioritization” or “exclusive consideration.” Some companies allocate capital to initiatives that can be labelled ESG over those that might create more long-term value, or make misguided decisions designed to improve ESG metrics even when they are not material to the business. Some investors buy a stock that satisfies ESG criteria with little regard for its price, or automatically vote against the appointment of a new director if it does not achieve their board diversity target, irrespective of that director's other credentials. Some clients pile into funds marketed as ESG irrespective of their actual performance. On the flipside, ESG skeptics have an allergic reaction to funds labelled “ESG” even when the funds use ESG for purely financial goals.

“The End of ESG” was the first in a series of three 2023 articles I wrote to address the problems with ESG. In that first one, I advocated that the ESG practice become both more mainstream and more nuanced.4 In the second, I argued that the term itself should be scrapped.5 And in the third, I highlighted yet another issue: the tendency of the term “ESG” be replace clear-headed thinking by implying that it's somehow different from mainstream business.6 As a result of this tendency, investors and corporate managers are misled into thinking that the insights from decades of research don't apply and resort to “gut feel” when practicing ESG.

But if we scrap ESG, what do we replace it with? Retiring the term without changing the practice fails to address the many legitimate concerns about ESG. Abandoning the practice entirely will throw the baby out with the bathwater and lose the many benefits of considering ESG factors in corporate and investment decisions. In “The End of ESG” I suggested that we replace the term with either “long-term value” or “intangible assets,” but neither term is perfect. ESG supporters argue that, even though in theory “long-term value” should lead us to consider any relevant factor, including ESG, in practice we may not, and “ESG” usefully reminds us to do so. “Intangible assets” has the virtue of directing us to look beyond tangible factors to create value, but we may only think to study brand and innovation rather than a company's impact on the environment and communities. A separate issue is that practitioners typically consider intangible assets only for financial reasons, but ESG may be pursued for social objectives.

This article proposes the term and practice of “Rational Sustainability” as an alternative to ESG. “Sustainability” refers to the goal: creating sustainable, long-term value, which is relevant to all job functions and political beliefs. It considers all factors that create value, regardless of whether they fall under an ESG label, and deprioritizes immaterial factors even if they can be called ESG. “Rational” refers to the approach: it recognizes diminishing returns and trade-offs; it is based on evidence and analysis; it questions many widespread sustainability conventions and practices rather than following the herd; and it guards against being caught up in irrational sustainability bubbles.7

I now go through these 10 features in turn.

The current practice of ESG gives special status to something just because it can be called ESG. ESG funds attract inflows even if not justified by performance; business schools boost their league table ranking by reporting more hours of ESG teaching; some investors, employees and customers put more weight on a company's ESG claims than delivering great returns, being a great place to work, or offering great products.

Certain ESG advocates argue that the label should be expanded so that more activities can get credit. Some enlarge it to “EESG,” with an extra E for Employees as they are too important to be considered a subset of S;11 others argue that any extra E should stand for Equity.12 When I was a panelist at an ESG conference, an audience member questioned why we were using such an outdated term and advocated BESG given the importance of biodiversity. Companies may end up in an arms’ race to add letters and move to BEEESG, just as some organizations focus more on expanding LGBT to LGBTQIA2S+ rather than actually being inclusive.

Such labeling can mask the lack of action. In a recent working paper, three economists calculate that, despite the supposed surge of ESG investing, ESG-related portfolio tilts represented only 6% of the investment industry's total assets in 2021.13 A 2005 Journal of Finance article found that, when a mutual fund changes its name to reflect a current “hot” style, it enjoyed 28% extra inflows despite no improvement in performance and irrespective of whether its holdings match its new name.14

Rational Sustainability is concerned with outcomes, not labels. The goal of sustainability is to create long-term value; a fund that adds “ESG” to its name without changing its holdings or engagement approach is not investing more sustainably. A fund that adds ESG to its name and changes its holdings is also not investing more sustainably if those actions do not enhance long-term returns.15

Rational Sustainability also both widens and focuses our perspective. It widens our perspective by stressing the need to consider any factor that creates sustainable value, even if it does not fall under an ESG label – such as productivity, innovation and culture. It focuses our perspective by cautioning against pursuing a factor simply because it falls under the ESG umbrella, if it does not create sustainable value. Yet Rational Sustainability may be superior to “long-term value”, as the inclusion of “sustainability” highlights the need to consider societal factors that may have otherwise been overlooked.

Why is there such a focus on labels? One reason is that there are instrumental benefits from being called ESG – funds enjoy inflows and companies attract customers. What matters is not so much doing ESG but being seen to do so.

Companies should instead ask themselves: “If you couldn't tell anyone you were doing it, would you still do it?” The answer might be “No” for many ESG initiatives, since their only benefit is instrumental. In contrast, a word that is often paired with “sustain” is “self”; we have self-sustaining organizations, ecosystems, populations, and organisms. Sustainability is pursued for intrinsic reasons – that is, because it's good for you. It allows organizations, ecosystems, populations, and organisms to thrive for decades, even centuries.

An instrumental approach to ESG undermines one of its key rationales. In theory, there should be no need for the ESG acronym to have ever been coined. Executives should know to invest in anything – including ESG – that ultimately creates long-term value, just as they'd improve a company's productivity, innovation, and culture, even though there's no PIC acronym. However, one rationale for ESG is that the financial benefits of ESG (unlike PIC) are hard to predict, no matter how far-sighted the executive. An explicit ESG objective could encourage an executive to make an investment because of its ESG benefits, and those benefits ultimately manifest in financial returns. But because these returns were difficult to forecast, financial considerations alone might not have justified the investment.16 For example, Vodafone launched the mobile money service M-Pesa in 2007 for the social return from improving financial inclusion in Kenya, but was later able to turn this into a financial return by charging a small percentage of every transaction.

If instead ESG is pursued for instrumental reasons, this narrows the freedom that ESG provides. M-Pesa does not improve any of the common ESG metrics that companies are scored on, such as carbon emissions, water usage, CEO-to-worker pay ratio, or gender diversity. It would have never been sanctioned under an instrumental approach to ESG. Sustainability frees a company to create long-term value, irrespective of whether it will get a gold star for doing so.

Generating long-term, sustainable value is widely accepted as being the core function of business. Finance 101 teaches us that shareholder value is the present value of all future cash flows; any business decision should be evaluated by its long-term consequences. Sustainability is thus the responsibility of every executive within a company, irrespective of your job title.

In contrast, ESG is often viewed as a peripheral cost center. In some asset management firms, the investment team focuses on forecasting long-term cash flows; ESG is a side analysis done by a separate team so that they can tell clients they are “doing ESG.” They then hire “ESG integration” specialists to force fund managers to have at least a cursory glance at the ESG analysis rather than reaching for the bin. Sustainability recognizes the criticality of analyzing a company's impact on society, because many of those impacts will ultimately feedback and affect its profits. The analysis may still be conducted by a separate department given its specialist nature, and there may still be integration professionals given the expertise required, but such analyses are eagerly welcomed and would still be even if the fund managers could not tell their clients.

A word often used interchangeably with “sustainability” and “ESG” is “purpose,” which I advocated in Grow the Pie. I continue to strongly believe in the power of purpose to generate financial and social value. However, at least as commonly practiced, “purpose” has been reduced to a slogan; the branding team comes up with a snappy-sounding purpose that has little effect on a company's decisions. Fund manager Terry Smith famously criticized Unilever for coming up with a “purpose” for mayonnaise when it is nothing more highbrow than salads and sandwiches. Ben & Jerry's claims that “we believe that ice cream can change the world” but it is unclear whether executives truly believe this and, if they did, how it would affect any corporate decision. If so, purpose has no purpose.

I've referred to the goal of sustainability as “long-term value,” but been deliberately vague about what this value is. Is it purely financial value, or does it include social value? And if it does, which societal objectives, and how much financial value should you be willing to sacrifice for them?

In “The End of ESG,” I argued that ESG investing is often just investing, because an investor should consider all factors relevant for generating long-term returns, both ESG and non-ESG. However, I acknowledged that one way in which ESG investing is not investing is that investors may have non-financial objectives, such as reducing negative externalities and creating positive externalities. Rational Sustainability allows for such non-financial goals. The value that it creates can be a mix of financial and social value, and thus it fully accommodates investors’ willingness to sacrifice the former for the latter. However, Rational Sustainability differs from ESG in three ways.

First, any societal objectives are pursued in a sustainable way: the goal is a mix of long-term financial and social value. Targeting diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) by hiring minorities irrespective of their ability may improve a company's short-term DEI statistics, but backfire in the long term as those hires do not succeed and leave. The company itself suffers worse performance, hindering its ability to hire in the future. Thus, workers also lose out.

Second, any societal objectives are pursued in a rational way. This involves recognizing diminishing returns and trade-offs, as Principle #7 will discuss in more detail. These trade-offs include trade-offs with financial returns. It can still be entirely rational to operate in the zone of diminishing – even negative – financial returns because financial returns are not investors’ only objective. However, investors should be aware of the trade-offs so that they understand the financial sacrifice that they are making.17 The trade-offs also include those with other societal returns, such as the fact that rapid decarbonization may lead to a significant loss of jobs. Rationality also involves using evidence to inform the strategies that are most effective in creating social returns, rather than (for example) divesting from all emitting companies because gut feel suggests that it would be effective.18

Third, Rational Sustainability emphasizes the need to be explicit about any non-financial objectives. To achieve long-term goals, you need to state what those goals are. Internally, it clarifies what employees should aim for; externally, it brings transparency and allows customers to go somewhere else if they're not aligned. A fund may choose to sacrifice financial returns to address climate change, but it needs to make this sacrifice clear in its prospectus rather than claiming that everything's a win-win. Otherwise, if the fund ends up underperforming, clients may withdraw their money as they were promised outperformance.

The above consideration also guards against the risk of becoming an “ESG Chameleon.” Some ESG advocates promote ESG based on claims that ESG improves financial performance, often backed up by flimsy research parading correlations between ESG and stock returns. When this research has subsequently been shown to be flawed due to data mining, omitted variables, or sample selection issues, they sometimes respond “well that was never the motive for ESG anyway; it was to save the world.” When evidence is presented suggesting that ESG's social and environmental impact is limited,19 they sometimes respond, “but the reason for ESG is to invest in companies that reflect our values.” Rational Sustainability highlights the importance of being clear about one's objective.20

The permissiveness of Rational Sustainability highlights that the definition of “long-term value” is an area about which there can be legitimate disagreement between Republicans and Democrats, and that some politicization cannot be avoided. Republicans might define long-term value as exclusively financial value, while Democrats may argue that it should also include social value. There may also be legitimate disagreement about which social objectives should be included and their relative importance. However, there should be less disagreement that, whatever objectives are chosen, they should be pursued in a rational and sustainable manner.

The next five principles highlight the key features of “rational” sustainability. In theory, there should be no need for such emphasis because people should always act rationally – just as in theory there should be no need to emphasize sustainability since people should always think long-term. However, there is widespread evidence of irrationality in many other contexts,21 and irrationality is likely even more severe for sustainability given confirmation bias. Sustainability advocates may believe that sustainability is always beneficial; detractors may think it is always harmful.

One important example of irrationality is in the interpretation of data and evidence. A huge number of sustainability studies abound, often written by commercial organizations with limited research credentials and whose goal is a PR boost rather than the truth. They get it by claiming what people want to hear – that sustainability always improves performance. Often, these studies are lapped up uncritically by readers who like the findings even if the analysis is weak. In my 2024 book, May Contain Lies,22 I highlight the numerous ways in which people fall for fluff: headlines are written about a study that does not exist; a study exists but doesn't conduct any analysis; the authors claim the opposite of what their analysis finds; the analysis doesn't actually measure sustainability or performance; the authors conducted dozens of analyses and only reported the ones that work; and the authors trumpet causation when there is only a correlation.

These errors appear so basic that it seems implausible that anyone would fall for them – how could you believe a claim when the results show the opposite? – but rationality goes out of the window when confirmation bias is at play. In contrast, studies uncovering inconvenient truths are dismissed out of hand, as “one study out of many” or as being politically motivated.

A rational look at the data finds that the evidence is much more nuanced than either side commonly claims. Some ESG factors are associated with higher long-term financial returns, such as corporate governance,23 employee satisfaction,24 and customer satisfaction.25 However, even those results may not be universal: corporate governance is uncorrelated with returns in competitive industries,26 employee satisfaction does not lead to outperformance in countries with heavily regulated labor markets,27 and ESG only generates high returns in crisis periods.28

In contrast, some of the factors that ESG advocates are particularly passionate about may have no or a negative correlation with returns. Companies that emit more carbon enjoy higher returns29 and these higher returns arise from outperformance, not risk;30 moreover, they are not robust to different methodologies.31 Multiple McKinsey studies claim that diversity is strongly correlated with company performance but they suffer from elementary flaws;32 a review of the highest-quality academic evidence finds a zero or negative link between diversity and company performance.33

Rather than being piqued by negative findings and wanting to ignore or attract them, a rational response is to use them to practice sustainability more effectively. Knowing that certain factors are not linked to financial performance allows you to focus on the ones that are (if your goal is solely, or predominantly, financial returns). Alternatively, it may prompt you to go deeper and analyze more complex measures of sustainability than the ones featured in the study. The lack of a link between demographic diversity and performance need not imply that DEI has no value, only that demographic diversity is a blunt measure of DEI. In a 2023 working paper, my coauthors and I find that a holistic measure of DEI, which incorporates equity and inclusion, is positively linked to financial performance.34

In addition to a careful approach to the data, Rational Sustainability involves a careful approach to analysis and logic. Sometimes, caution goes out of the window when considering ESG, viewing it as a “magic word” that defies the need to conduct analysis – for example, the belief that a fund should always boycott fossil fuels due to their ESG risks, and always invest in electric cars due to their ESG opportunities.35 Rational Sustainability involves treating ESG like any other factor. Just as a rational reader applies the same scrutiny to an ESG study as to any other study, a rational investor compares an ESG stock to its price just like any other stock. A company could be risky, but the risks could be more than discounted; it could be attractive but overpriced due to a bubble.

One potential objection to the concept of “rational” sustainability is that the qualification is unnecessary because there is no such thing as “irrational” sustainability. Sustainability – concern for people and the planet – is a “good thing,” so it cannot possibly be irrational. Such an objection conflates the goal with the approach. Even if the goal is laudable, it can be pursued in either rational or irrational ways. Dieting, exercise, and hard work are generally seen as good things, but you can have irrational dieting, irrational exercise, and irrational hard work. ESG and sustainability are not “magic words” that defy the laws of gravity, or the laws of economics, and are immune to irrationality.

A second potential objection is that it is unclear how to define “rational.” Aditya may think it's rational to pursue only financial returns, and Beatriz to seek a mixture of financial and social returns. However, this again conflates the goal with the approach. It is entirely reasonable to have non-standard objectives if they are pursued in rational ways. This has long been recognized in the behavioral economics literature. For example, in their 2001 model of prospect theory, Nicholas Barberis, Ming Huang, and Tano Santos note that “While our preferences are nonstandard, this does not mean that they are irrational in any sense: it is not irrational for people to get utility from sources other than consumption, nor is it irrational for them to anticipate these feelings when making decisions.”36

But how do we define being “pursued in rational ways?” Again, the behavioral economics literature offers guidance: taking all information into account and updating your beliefs according to Bayes’ Rule. Irrationality may come in many forms, such as confirmation bias: rejecting information that contradicts your beliefs, and overweighting information that confirms them. Rationality does not mean that there is only one way to interpret information. There may be legitimate disagreement as to whether an ESG factor will increase or decrease returns, particularly if no research has been conducted on the topic. Where information is ambiguous, rationality means treating it as ambiguous and allowing for differences in opinion, rather than interpreting it in a way that confirms your beliefs about sustainability.

In January 2024, I was discussing sustainable real estate with two investors, Russell Chaplin and Chris Miller-Jones of Europa Capital. They questioned whether a potential investment should always have more green building certifications than fewer or, having bought a building, whether to follow the common industry trend of trying to get as many certifications as possible. They saw the value of sustainability but recognized the diminishing returns to each additional certification, as well as the increasing costs – both in renovating the building to qualify for certification and investing the time and money to get certified. I then described their approach as “Rational Sustainability.”

Irrational sustainability involves pursuing a project, investment, or certification just because it is viewed as sustainable. Even if it actually sustainable and has genuine benefits rather than just ticking a box, there will be costs to it – direct financial costs of making the investment, and indirect costs of time diverted from other activities that create financial or social value. In addition, more is not always better; as with any investment, returns are diminishing and can turn negative.

Rational Sustainability recognizes that sustainability factors are subject to the same laws of gravity as everything else. It encourages us to look at the big picture – rather than getting engrossed with the benefits, to step back and consider the costs. This continues to apply even if our goal is more than financial returns. Estimating the financial cost is necessary to discern whether the additional social payoff is sufficient to outweigh the reduced financial payoff, rather than ploughing straight ahead because social returns are a “good thing.”

Principle #7 highlighted that, if you consider a given ESG factor, more is not always better. This principle highlights the economic reality that a greater number of ESG factors is not always better.

Irrational sustainability involves trying to tick as many ESG boxes as possible. The more you tick, the higher your ESG rating will be, and the less likely that customers will boycott you for failing to tick their preferred box. Rational Sustainability recognizes that, while a company has responsibilities to society (either for financial or social reasons), there are limits: Apple should not be culpable if its excellence hastens the decline of BlackBerry, nor if its hiring standards prevent low-quality applicants from getting jobs.37 A company is not responsible for addressing all of society's challenges or pursuing all 17 Sustainable Development Goals; that's the role of governments.

Rational Sustainability sets boundaries. It establishes a framework for analyzing what a company's responsibilities should and should not be. This framework in turn guides decisions on how to allocate capital, headcount, and time. A company can then be held accountable for delivering on the responsibilities that it has set out. Without such boundaries, anything goes; it is not clear how an executive should navigate trade-offs, or what investors should hold her accountable for.

In Grow the Pie, I propose two criteria to establish such boundaries.38 One is comparative advantage: a company should focus on those sustainability activities in which it has unique expertise. Vodafone should invest in M-Pesa since it has telecoms expertise; it should not donate money to charity because it has no special ability to evaluate which charities are most worthy or effective.

A second is materiality. If a company's only goal is financial returns, this entails business materiality: a company should prioritize those stakeholders that are most important for its business model. Apple should invest in specialist suppliers such as Corning, which provides the touch-screen glass for its iPhones, but commodity suppliers are less material. If a company's goal includes social returns, this also involves intrinsic materiality: the non-financial objectives its shareholders and stakeholders care about (rather than, for instance, the ones that happen to be in the news).

My criteria are certainly not the only set of legitimate criteria. Companies may choose their own criteria, but some criteria are needed otherwise decisions are arbitrary.

The irrationality that plagues sustainability is not limited to confirmation bias. Another behavioral bias that is particularly relevant for sustainability is herd mentality, where people pile into something because everyone else is doing so. Professors rush to teach courses on ESG irrespective of expertise, companies like Target, Bud Light and Disney raced to embrace liberal issues without thinking about their conservative customers, and investors jump on the latest DEI fad.

One example of the latter is the big market delusion that surrounded electric vehicles (“EVs”) in early 2021.39 Investors were so excited about the sustainability credentials of EVs – their potential to generate financial returns and address climate change – that they bid up the values of EV stocks to nonsensically high levels. Adding up the price of each EV company led to an implausible value for the total EV industry, even under the most optimistic scenario for the uptake of EVs. However, investors forgot this “adding-up constraint” in their mania.

A second irrationality is the “zero-risk bias,” which leads people to seek the complete elimination of a risk, even if its substantial reduction is sufficient. As an everyday example, consumers pay for overpriced extended warranties even if the risk of a breakdown is already small, to reduce it to zero.40 In a sustainability context, many companies have signed up to be “net zero,” perhaps due to the attractiveness of “zero.” However, society as a whole can be net zero as a whole without every company being net zero. Some industries, such as reforestation, will naturally be carbon-negative; for other industries, such as construction, it is impossible to be net zero without the use of offsets, whose validity and effectiveness has been challenged and whose purchase is inconsistent with comparative advantage.41

In addition to guarding against your own irrationality, Rational Sustainability allows investors to exploit market irrationality – selling sustainable companies that are overpriced, or buying sustainable companies that are underpriced because they do not tick ESG boxes. One might question whether it is responsible – sustainable, even – to exploit others’ irrationality. Launching funds with ESG labels to capitalize on people's misbelief that ESG always pays off might be seen as irresponsible.42 This is why I have referred to “market irrationality” rather than “consumer irrationality.” Participants in financial markets who choose to trade individual stocks when they could buy mutual funds should know that they are swimming with sharks. Moreover, exploiting irrationality corrects mispricing, making market prices more accurate signals for corporate decision makers.43 For example, deflating the EV bubble will prevent EV companies from raising cheap equity when the industry is already over-capacity and needs a shake-out; buying underpriced sustainable companies will help the market recognize their value.

Principle #9 highlighted how the herd mentality can lead to market bubbles and crashes. It can similarly distort executives’ decisions by leading to them taking actions indiscriminately, just because everybody else is doing it.

For example, many companies have signed up for net zero without even understanding what “net” or “zero” is. Starting with the former, it is not obvious whether it is appropriate to net off negative emissions, thus treating them as equal to emissions reduction. Moving to the latter, it is unclear how to define zero due to indirect positive effects (manufacturing semiconductors releases greenhouse gases, but semiconductors may be used in solar panels) and indirect negative effects (electric cars may use electricity from fossil fuels). Furthermore, it is not clear whether every company needs to be net zero even if society should be, whether firms have calculated the financial cost of net zero (compared to, say, a 95% reduction in emissions), and whether “net benefit” (which includes environmental and social impacts beyond carbon) is a better target than “net zero.”

Principle #7 highlighted the importance of stepping back and looking at the big picture of a decision – its costs as well as its benefits. Challenging and questioning involves stepping back even further and looking at the big picture of the problem the decision is trying to solve. For example, in 2023 the Financial Conduct Authority, a UK regulator, proposed to regulate the diversity of a company's workforce under the claim that their Consumer Duty is to ensure fair provision of financial services to customers.44 But if this is their goal, then the solution is to regulate directly the fairness of provision of financial services to customers, not the demographic diversity of employees which is very far removed.45 However, given frequent calls to regulate diversity from pressure groups, and the herd mentality of following regulators in other countries, a particular regulator may pounce on doing so without asking what problem it is a solution to, and whether a non-sustainability regulation would solve it more effectively.

This article has proposed “Rational Sustainability” as an alternative to ESG – a term and set of practices that started off with much promise and good intentions but has failed to achieve this promise, owing to naïve implementations by true believers, blind opposition by equally zealous adversaries, and exploitation of the ESG movement by opportunists and imposters.

Rational Sustainability is sustainable. Its goal is long-term sustainable value, not political objectives; it includes everything that improves long-term value irrespective of whether it is labelled ESG; it is pursued by companies even if they can't tell anyone they're doing so; it is embraced as a core profit center not resented as a peripheral cost center; and it accommodates different definitions of value.

Rational Sustainability is also rational. Its approach is based on evidence and clear-headed analysis; it recognizes diminishing returns and trade-offs; it sets boundaries rather than thinking that “anything goes”; it guards against your own irrationality and capitalizes on market irrationality; and it challenges and questions rather than follow the herd.

Rational Sustainability has the potential to create long-term value for shareholders and society, fulfilling the promise that ESG failed to.

合理的可持续性
18 第三,理性可持续发展强调必须明确任何非财务目标。要实现长期目标,就必须说明这些目标是什么。对内,它明确了员工应该追求的目标;对外,它带来了透明度,并允许客户在不一致的情况下选择其他地方。基金可能会选择牺牲财务回报来应对气候变化,但它需要在招股说明书中明确说明这种牺牲,而不是声称一切都是双赢。否则,如果基金最终表现不佳,客户可能会撤回资金,因为他们曾被承诺获得超额收益。上述考虑还可以防范成为 "ESG变色龙 "的风险。一些 ESG 倡导者在宣传 ESG 时,声称 ESG 可以提高财务业绩,并往往以虚假的研究为后盾,标榜 ESG 与股票回报之间的相关性。当这些研究后来被证明因数据挖掘、遗漏变量或样本选择问题而存在缺陷时,他们有时会回应说:"反正这从来不是 ESG 的动机,它是为了拯救世界。当有证据表明 ESG 对社会和环境的影响有限时19 ,他们有时会回答说:"但 ESG 的目的是投资于反映我们价值观的公司"。20 "理性可持续发展 "的放任强调了 "长期价值 "的定义是共和党人和民主党人之间可能存在合理分歧的一个领域,一些政治化是无法避免的。共和党人可能会将长期价值定义为纯粹的经济价值,而民主党人则可能认为它还应包括社会价值。对于应包括哪些社会目标及其相对重要性,也可能存在合理的分歧。但是,无论选择什么目标,都应该以理性和可持续的方式来追求,这一点应该不会有太大的分歧。从理论上讲,没有必要这样强调,因为人们总是应该理性行事--正如从理论上讲,没有必要强调可持续性,因为人们总是应该从长远考虑问题。然而,在许多其他情况下,非理性的证据比比皆是21 ,鉴于确认偏差,可持续发展的非理性可能更加严重。可持续发展的支持者可能认为可持续发展总是有益的,而反对者可能认为可持续发展总是有害的。大量的可持续发展研究比比皆是,这些研究往往是由研究资质有限的商业机构撰写的,其目的是提高公关效果,而不是揭示真相。他们通过宣称人们想听到的东西来达到目的--可持续发展总能提高绩效。通常情况下,这些研究报告会被读者不加批判地接受,因为即使分析不力,读者也会喜欢这些研究结果。在我 2024 年出版的《可能包含谎言》一书22 中,我强调了人们上当受骗的多种方式:标题上写的研究并不存在;研究存在,但没有进行任何分析;作者声称与他们的分析结果相反;分析实际上并没有衡量可持续性或绩效;作者进行了数十项分析,只报告了有效的分析;作者大肆宣扬因果关系,但实际上只有相关关系。这些错误看似非常基本,似乎没有人会上当--结果恰恰相反,你怎么会相信这样的说法呢?- 但当确认偏见发挥作用时,理性就会被抛到九霄云外。与此相反,那些揭示了令人不快的真相的研究却被认为是 "众多研究中的一个",或者是出于政治动机而被嗤之以鼻。对数据进行理性审视后会发现,证据比任何一方通常所说的都要细微得多。一些 ESG 因素与较高的长期财务回报相关,如公司治理、23 员工满意度24 和客户满意度25 。然而,即使是这些结果也不一定具有普遍性:在竞争激烈的行业中,公司治理与回报不相关;26 在劳动力市场监管严格的国家,员工满意度不会带来超额回报;27 ESG 只在危机时期产生高回报28 。 非理性的可持续发展是指仅仅因为某个项目、投资或认证被认为是可持续的,就去追求它。即使它确实是可持续的,并且有真正的好处,而不仅仅是打勾,它也会有成本--投资的直接经济成本,以及从其他创造经济或社会价值的活动中挪用时间的间接成本。此外,投资并不总是越多越好;与任何投资一样,回报都是递减的,甚至会变成负数。"理性可持续发展 "认识到,可持续发展因素与其他因素一样,都受制于万有引力定律。理性的可持续发展认识到,可持续发展因素与其他因素一样受制于万有引力定律。它鼓励我们纵观全局--与其沉迷于利益,不如退一步考虑成本。即使我们的目标不仅仅是经济回报,这一点也同样适用。有必要估算财务成本,以确定额外的社会回报是否足以抵消减少的财务回报,而不是因为社会回报是件 "好事 "而一意孤行。"原则 7 "强调,如果考虑特定的环境、社会和公司治理因素,并非越多越好。这一原则强调了一个经济现实,即更多的环境、社会和公司治理因素并不总是更好。打勾越多,你的 ESG 评级就越高,客户就越不会因为你没有打勾而抵制你。理性的可持续发展认识到,虽然公司对社会负有责任(无论是出于经济原因还是社会原因),但也有限度:如果苹果公司的卓越表现加速了黑莓手机的衰落,或者如果苹果公司的招聘标准阻碍了低质量的求职者获得工作,那么苹果公司不应该承担责任。合理的可持续发展观设定了界限,它建立了一个框架来分析公司的责任应该是什么,不应该是什么。这个框架反过来又指导如何分配资金、员工和时间的决策。这样,公司就有责任履行其规定的责任。没有这样的界限,什么都可以做;不清楚高管应该如何权衡利弊,也不清楚投资者应该让她承担什么责任。在《成长派》中,我提出了两个标准来确立这样的界限38 。沃达丰应该投资 M-Pesa,因为它拥有电信方面的专业知识;它不应该向慈善机构捐款,因为它没有特殊能力来评估哪些慈善机构最有价值或最有效。如果一家公司的唯一目标是经济回报,这就需要考虑商业实质:一家公司应优先考虑那些对其商业模式最重要的利益相关者。苹果公司应投资于专业供应商,如为其 iPhone 提供触摸屏玻璃的康宁公司,但商品供应商的重要性较低。如果公司的目标包括社会回报,这也涉及到内在重要性:公司股东和利益相关者关心的非财务目标(而不是,例如,那些碰巧出现在新闻中的目标)。公司可以选择自己的标准,但有些标准是必须的,否则决策就是武断的。另一种与可持续发展特别相关的行为偏差是从众心理,即由于其他人都在这样做,人们就会扎堆去做某件事情。教授们不顾自己的专业知识,争先恐后地教授有关环境、社会和公司治理的课程;塔吉特、百威淡啤和迪斯尼等公司争先恐后地拥抱自由主义议题,而不考虑其保守的客户;投资者们则对最新的可持续发展投资热潮趋之若鹜。39 投资者们对电动汽车的可持续发展资质--其产生经济回报和应对气候变化的潜力--感到非常兴奋,以至于将电动汽车股票的价值抬高到了无稽的水平。将每家电动汽车公司的价格相加,即使在最乐观的电动汽车普及情况下,整个电动汽车行业的价值也是难以置信的。第二种非理性是 "零风险偏差",它导致人们寻求完全消除风险,即使大幅降低风险就足够了。举个日常的例子,即使发生故障的风险已经很小,消费者也会为高价购买延保服务,以将风险降至零。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 求助全文
来源期刊
自引率
11.10%
发文量
44
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信