A probabilistic approach on uncertainty modelling and their effect on the optimal operation of charging stations

Abstract

Uncertainty analysis deals with the fluctuations and unpredictability of the electrical power generated from renewable resources (RRs), such as solar PV and wind energy systems. This paper gives an insight into various techniques used for the uncertainty analysis and a probabilistic Monte Carlo Simulation is applied for modelling the uncertainties concerned with RRs and electric vehicle (EV) load in the MATLAB platform. The uncertainty associated with the price sensitivity of EV charging and the state of charge of EVs is taken as a prime factor for analysis in the present work. Despite the fluctuations and unpredictability of electricity generation and consumption, the considered system ensures that the total amount of electricity supplied by solar PV, wind and grid matches the total amount of electricity demanded by EV load. Rao-1, Rao-2 and Rao-3 algorithms are applied in this work to optimize the operation cost of charging stations under uncertain conditions and without any uncertainties. The results obtained without uncertainties by Rao algorithms are compared with the existing particle swarm optimisation method. In the presence of uncertainties, Rao-1 and Rao-2 algorithms are compared with Rao-3 and it is found that the Rao-3 algorithm performed better.