Rutger W. A. Siemes, Trang Minh Duong, Bas W. Borsje, Suzanne J. M. H. Hulscher
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Estuaries worldwide are susceptible and adapting to climate change (CC) impacts from both the river and coastal boundaries. Furthermore, engineering efforts are undertaken to improve flood safety, to claim land for human use or for port operations, which change estuary morphology. This paper aims to gain an understanding of the combined effects of CC and human interventions on the estuarine-wide morphological response by analyzing the sediment infilling of highly engineered estuaries. A schematized process-based morphodynamic model is used (Delft3D-FM, in 2DH), resembling a highly engineered estuary in the Rhine-Meuse Delta, The Netherlands. Three types of changes were implemented, both in isolation and in combination: (a) local interventions (changing channel depth or wetland area), (b) upstream human interventions (changing fluvial sediment supply) and (c) extreme CC scenarios (with projections for the future forcings and bathymetry). Results show that a CC scenario can elicit both positive and negative changes in the estuary's sediment budget. The direction and magnitude of the change depend on the local intervention and can align with the effect of the local intervention, intensifying its impact. The combined effects can even reverse the sign of the sediment budget. This stresses the need of analyzing CC impacts in combination with human interventions. Additionally, a relationship was identified which quantifies how a change in peak flow velocity due to both local interventions and sea-level rise affects the annual sediment budget. These findings can help determine how local interventions affect morphodynamics of engineered estuaries in present and future climates.
全世界的河口都很容易受到气候变化(CC)的影响,并正在适应来自河流和沿海地区的影响。此外,为提高防洪安全、为人类使用土地或港口运营而进行的工程努力也改变了河口的形态。本文旨在通过分析高度工程化河口的沉积物填充情况,了解 CC 和人为干预对整个河口形态响应的综合影响。本文使用了一个基于过程的示意形态动力学模型(Delft3D-FM,2DH 中),该模型类似于荷兰莱茵河-缪斯河三角洲的一个高度工程化河口。该模型单独或结合实施了三类变化:(a) 局部干预(改变河道深度或湿地面积),(b) 上游人为干预(改变河道沉积物供应),(c) 极端 CC 情景(预测未来的作用力和水深)。结果表明,CC 情景可引起河口沉积物预算的正负变化。变化的方向和幅度取决于当地的干预措施,并可能与当地干预措施的效果一致,从而加剧其影响。综合效应甚至会扭转沉积物预算的符号。这强调了结合人类干预措施分析气候变化影响的必要性。此外,还确定了一种关系,可量化当地干预措施和海平面上升导致的峰值流速变化如何影响年度沉积物预算。这些发现有助于确定地方干预措施在当前和未来气候条件下如何影响工程河口的形态动力学。