Future material demand and greenhouse gas emissions implications for electrification of the UK light-duty vehicle fleet†

Abstract

The UK zero-emissions vehicle (ZEV) mandate aims for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) to account for 100% of new sales by 2035. This study presents a fleet-scale life cycle assessment model of UK light duty vehicles through 2050, integrating a dynamic material flow analysis to evaluate the implications on critical battery materials. Rapid uptake of BEVs is projected to grow demand for primary materials within 15 years, particularly for lithium, nickel, and cobalt, exceeding current UK consumption by at least five-fold. In the longer-term, the successful creation of a closed-loop battery recycling ecosystem has the potential to mitigate further increases in demand for primary critical materials. With the adoption of efficient closed-loop, domestic recycling practice, the EU's regulations for battery recycled content requirements could be met for nickel and lithium, though cobalt remains a challenge as the recycled content targets could only be met two to three years later. The ZEV mandate is projected to be effective in reducing overall life cycle GHG emissions by 57% in 2050, relative to 2021. Even with an ambitious target like the UK's 2035 ZEV mandate, internal combustion engine vehicles will continue to operate on the road for years to come given that the fleet average is a 15 years vehicle lifetime. Thus, it is prudent to also consider low-carbon fuels as a complementary strategy to deliver the UK's net-zero target.