High-resolution tsunami hazard assessment for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area based on a non-hydrostatic tsunami model

IF 6 2区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Yifan Zhu, Chao An, Houyun Yu, Wei Zhang, Xiaofei Chen
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) is threatened by potential tsunami hazards from the Littoral Fault Zone (LFZ) and the Manila subduction zone (MSZ), and may suffer huge damage because of its dense population, concentrated infrastructure, and low-lying coasts. Previous tsunami studies for the GBA made simple assumptions on the mechanisms of LFZ earthquakes, and used coarse bathymetry data in tsunami simulation, which limited the prediction of detailed tsunami hazard characteristics. In this paper, we develop a parallel dispersive tsunami model PCOMCOT to efficiently simulate dispersive, nonlinear, and breaking tsunami waves. We also construct large-scale and high-resolution bathymetry models for the GBA by correcting and integrating various data sources. Dynamic rupture simulation is performed for the LFZ to obtain a more reliable earthquake source model. We propose several representative earthquake scenarios for the LFZ and MSZ, and use PCOMCOT to calculate the resulting tsunami waves, currents, and inundation in the GBA. Our results indicate that if an Mw7.5 oblique-slip earthquake occurs in the LFZ off the Pearl River Estuary (PRE), the subsequent tsunami will primarily impact Hong Kong, causing maximum positive and negative waves of around 1 m and −2 m, respectively, along with slightly destructive currents (⩾1.5 m/s). An Mw9.0 MSZ megathrust earthquake can lead to widespread inundation with >1 m depth on the outlying islands of Macao and in the urban areas of Hong Kong around the Victoria Harbour. Besides, it will also cause catastrophic tsunami currents along the narrow waterways in Hong Kong and Macao, and the spatial distribution of strong currents (⩾3 m/s) shows a considerable discrepancy from the areas of serious inundation. Thus, more attention should be paid to the potential impacts of tsunami currents on the GBA.

基于非静水海啸模型的粤港澳大湾区高分辨率海啸灾害评估
粤港澳大湾区(GBA)受到滨海断裂带(LFZ)和马尼拉俯冲带(MSZ)潜在海啸灾害的威胁,由于人口稠密、基础设施集中、海岸地势低洼,可能遭受巨大损失。以往的海啸研究对滨海断裂带(LFZ)的地震机制作了简单的假设,并在海啸模拟中使用了粗略的水深测量数据,这限制了对海啸危害特征的详细预测。在本文中,我们开发了一个并行的分散海啸模型 PCOMCOT,以有效地模拟分散、非线性和断裂海啸波。我们还通过校正和整合各种数据源,构建了大尺度和高分辨率的全球大洋协会水深模型。为获得更可靠的震源模型,我们对低纬度区进行了动态破裂模拟。我们为低纬度区和中纬度区提出了几种有代表性的地震情况,并使用 PCOMCOT 计算了由此产生的海啸波、海流和对全球滩涂的淹没。结果表明,如果在珠江口附近的低纬度区(LFZ)发生 Mw7.5 级斜滑地震,随后的海啸将主要影响香港,造成的最大正、负波分别约为 1 米和-2 米,并伴有轻微的破坏性海流(⩾1.5 米/秒)。Mw9.0 MSZ 大地壳地震可导致澳门离岛和香港维多利亚港附近的市区大面积淹没,水深达 1 米。此外,它还会在香港和澳门的狭窄水道上引起灾难性的海啸流,而强流(⩾3 m/s)的空间分布与严重淹没区有相当大的差距。因此,应更多地关注海啸海流对大湾区的潜在影响。
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来源期刊
Science China Earth Sciences
Science China Earth Sciences GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY-
CiteScore
9.60
自引率
5.30%
发文量
135
审稿时长
3-8 weeks
期刊介绍: Science China Earth Sciences, an academic journal cosponsored by the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the National Natural Science Foundation of China, and published by Science China Press, is committed to publishing high-quality, original results in both basic and applied research.
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