Synergistic Impacts of Indian Ocean SST and Indo-China Peninsula Soil Moisture on the 2020 Record-breaking Mei-yu

Abstract

The Yangtze River basin (YRB) experienced a record-breaking mei-yu season in June–July 2020. This unique long-lasting extreme event and its origin have attracted considerable attention. Previous studies have suggested that the Indian Ocean (IO) SST forcing and soil moisture anomaly over the Indochina Peninsula (ICP) were responsible for this unexpected event. However, the relative contributions of IO SST and ICP soil moisture to the 2020 mei-yu rainfall event, especially their linkage with atmospheric circulation changes, remain unclear. By using observations and numerical simulations, this study examines the synergistic impacts of IO SST and ICP soil moisture on the extreme mei-yu in 2020. Results show that the prolonged dry soil moisture led to a warmer surface over the ICP in May under strong IO SST backgrounds. The intensification of the warm condition further magnified the land thermal effects, which in turn facilitated the westward extension of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) in June–July. The intensified WNPSH amplified the water vapor convergence and ascending motion over the YRB, thereby contributing to the 2020 mei-yu. In contrast, the land thermal anomalies diminish during normal IO SST backgrounds due to the limited persistence of soil moisture. The roles of IO SST and ICP soil moisture are verified and quantified using the Community Earth System Model. Their synergistic impacts yield a notable 32% increase in YRB precipitation. Our findings provide evidence for the combined influences of IO SST forcing and ICP soil moisture variability on the occurrence of the 2020 super mei-yu.