Improving Optimal Fingerprinting Methods Requires a Viewpoint beyond Statistical Science

Abstract

While being successful in the detection and attribution of climate change, the optimal fingerprinting method (OFM) may have some limitations from a physics-and-dynamics-based viewpoint. Here, an analysis is made on the linearity, non-interaction, and stationary-variability assumptions adopted by OFM. It is suggested that furthering OFM needs a viewpoint beyond statistical science, and the method should be combined with theoretical tools in the dynamics and physics of the Earth system, so as to be applied for the detection and attribution of nonlinear climate change including tipping elements within the Earth system.