The Role of Salience and Memory in Fertility Decisions: Experimental Evidence

Abstract

Public policies use communication campaigns to affect individual behavior. We analyze how providing women with information on the beneficial effects of using formal childcare may affect their realized fertility. We argue that cues in the messages are particularly salient for mothers and women with fertility intensions, since they activate these women’s past memories. Hence, cues induce these women to create mental representations of future actions, such as realized fertility. We exploit a randomized survey experiment run in 2011, which provides information on the positive effects that attending daycare may have on the children’ future cognitive development. Using a follow-up survey run six-year later we show that the treatment increases realized fertility among mothers and women with declared fertility intentions, for whom the communication was more salient. Yet, the treatment did not affect the individual knowledge nor recall of the information provided in the message. Our results carry important policy implications: persuading individuals is difficult, but communication can be effective if salient.