Low Tropospheric Wind Forecasts in Aviation: The Potential of Deep Learning for Terminal Aerodrome Forecast Bulletins

IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS
Décio Alves, Fábio Mendonça, Sheikh Shanawaz Mostafa, Fernando Morgado-Dias
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Abstract

In aviation, accurate wind prediction is crucial, especially during takeoff and landing at complex sites like Gran Canaria Airport. This study evaluated five Deep Learning models: Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Vanilla Recurrent Neural Network (vRNN), One-Dimensional Convolutional Neural Network (1dCNN), Convolutional Neural Network Long Short-Term Memory (CNN-LSTM), and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) for forecasting wind speed and direction. The LSTM model demonstrated the highest precision, particularly for extended forecasting periods, achieving a mean absolute error (MAE) of 1.23 m/s and a circular MAE (cMAE) of 15.80° for wind speed and direction, respectively, aligning with World Meteorological Organization standards for Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAF). While the GRU and CNN-LSTM also showed promising results, and the 1dCNN excelled in wind direction forecasting over shorter intervals, the vRNN lagged in performance. Additionally, the autoregressive integrated moving average model underperformed relative to the DL models, underscoring the potential of DL, particularly LSTM, in enhancing TAF accuracy at airports with intricate wind patterns. This study not only confirms the superiority of DL over traditional methods but also highlights the promise of integrating artificial intelligence into TAF automation.

Abstract Image

航空低对流层风预报:终端机场预报公报的深度学习潜力
在航空领域,准确的风力预测至关重要,尤其是在大加那利岛机场这样的复杂地点起飞和着陆时。本研究评估了五种深度学习模型:长短期记忆(LSTM)、香草递归神经网络(vRNN)、一维卷积神经网络(1dCNN)、卷积神经网络长短期记忆(CNN-LSTM)和门控递归单元(GRU),用于预测风速和风向。LSTM 模型的精度最高,尤其是在延长预报期时,风速和风向的平均绝对误差(MAE)分别为 1.23 米/秒和 15.80°,符合世界气象组织的终端机场预报(TAF)标准。虽然 GRU 和 CNN-LSTM 也显示出良好的效果,1dCNN 在较短时间间隔的风向预报方面表现出色,但 vRNN 的性能却相对落后。此外,自回归综合移动平均模型的表现不如 DL 模型,这凸显了 DL(尤其是 LSTM)在提高具有复杂风向模式的机场 TAF 精确度方面的潜力。这项研究不仅证实了 DL 相对于传统方法的优越性,而且还强调了将人工智能集成到 TAF 自动化中的前景。
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来源期刊
pure and applied geophysics
pure and applied geophysics 地学-地球化学与地球物理
CiteScore
4.20
自引率
5.00%
发文量
240
审稿时长
9.8 months
期刊介绍: pure and applied geophysics (pageoph), a continuation of the journal "Geofisica pura e applicata", publishes original scientific contributions in the fields of solid Earth, atmospheric and oceanic sciences. Regular and special issues feature thought-provoking reports on active areas of current research and state-of-the-art surveys. Long running journal, founded in 1939 as Geofisica pura e applicata Publishes peer-reviewed original scientific contributions and state-of-the-art surveys in solid earth and atmospheric sciences Features thought-provoking reports on active areas of current research and is a major source for publications on tsunami research Coverage extends to research topics in oceanic sciences See Instructions for Authors on the right hand side.
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