Performance Analyzes of Thermodynamic Indices and Atmospheric Parameters in Thunderstorm and Non-thunderstorm Days in Istanbul, Turkey

IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS
Veli Yavuz
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Abstract

This study aims to analyze the thunderstorm (TS) events in the megacity Istanbul by using thermodynamic indices and atmospheric stability parameters for the period of 2001–2022. It was determined that TS events did not show any trend on an annual basis, mostly (%69) occurred in the warm season (May–September), and mostly (%93) lasted for a few hours (0–3 h). The thermodynamic indices and atmospheric stability parameters used in the study are Showalter Index (SI), Lifted Index (LI), Severe Weather Threat Index (SWEAT), K-Index (KI), Totals Totals Index (TTI), Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), Convective Inhibition (CIN), and Bulk Richardson Number (BRN). Annual and seasonal analyzes of all indices and parameters were performed for TS and non-TS events. Significant differences were found in both average, maximum, and minimum values. The Probability of Detection (POD), False Alarm Ratio (FAR), Miss Rate (MR), Critical Success Index (CIS), Hiedke Skill Score (HSS), and True Skill Score (TSS) were used to analyze the success of the threshold values presented in the literature in detecting TS events. Then, the seasonal successes of these threshold values were tested. It was observed that the performance of the selected indices varied across seasons. The highest predictive skill was generally observed during the summer season, with the POD value ranging between 0.58 and 0.97 and the TSS value varying between 0.32 and 0.57. Conversely, the lowest predictive skill was typically observed during the winter season, where the POD value ranged from 0.00 to 0.75 and the TSS value varied between 0.00 and 0.40. The ideal threshold values were determined for indices and parameters by increasing or decreasing the existing threshold values at certain rates. Success increases of up to 15% in skill scores for the proposed threshold values.

Abstract Image

土耳其伊斯坦布尔雷雨天和非雷雨天的热力学指数和大气参数性能分析
本研究旨在利用 2001-2022 年期间的热力学指数和大气稳定性参数,分析特大城市伊斯坦布尔的雷暴(TS)事件。研究结果表明,雷暴事件没有呈现出任何年度趋势,大部分(69%)发生在暖季(5 月至 9 月),大部分(93%)持续数小时(0-3 小时)。研究中使用的热动力指数和大气稳定性参数包括昭和指数(SI)、抬升指数(LI)、恶劣天气威胁指数(SWEAT)、K 指数(KI)、总合指数(TTI)、对流可用势能(CAPE)、对流抑制(CIN)和体积理查森数(BRN)。对 TS 和非 TS 事件的所有指数和参数进行了年度和季节分析。在平均值、最大值和最小值方面都发现了显著差异。检测概率(POD)、误报率(FAR)、漏报率(MR)、临界成功指数(CIS)、希德克技能分数(HSS)和真实技能分数(TSS)被用来分析文献中提出的阈值在检测 TS 事件方面的成功率。然后,对这些阈值的季节性成功率进行了测试。结果表明,所选指数在不同季节的表现各不相同。夏季的预测能力通常最高,POD 值介于 0.58 和 0.97 之间,TSS 值介于 0.32 和 0.57 之间。相反,冬季的预测能力通常最低,POD 值在 0.00 到 0.75 之间,TSS 值在 0.00 到 0.40 之间。通过按一定比例增减现有阈值,确定了指数和参数的理想阈值。根据建议的临界值,技能得分最多可成功提高 15%。
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来源期刊
pure and applied geophysics
pure and applied geophysics 地学-地球化学与地球物理
CiteScore
4.20
自引率
5.00%
发文量
240
审稿时长
9.8 months
期刊介绍: pure and applied geophysics (pageoph), a continuation of the journal "Geofisica pura e applicata", publishes original scientific contributions in the fields of solid Earth, atmospheric and oceanic sciences. Regular and special issues feature thought-provoking reports on active areas of current research and state-of-the-art surveys. Long running journal, founded in 1939 as Geofisica pura e applicata Publishes peer-reviewed original scientific contributions and state-of-the-art surveys in solid earth and atmospheric sciences Features thought-provoking reports on active areas of current research and is a major source for publications on tsunami research Coverage extends to research topics in oceanic sciences See Instructions for Authors on the right hand side.
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