The impact of global warming on obesity

Abstract

This study identifies obesity as an important channel through which global warming affects human capital. By analyzing plausibly exogenous year-to-year temperature fluctuations in 152 countries from 1975 to 2016, we find that global warming has significantly increased obesity rates in countries located in temperate zones, while only causing a reduction in a small number of tropical countries. The estimates suggest that a 1 \(^{\circ }\)C increase in the annual mean temperature would result in a worldwide increase in obese adults of 79.7 million, or 12.3%. Similar patterns emerge when examining the effects of temperature bins, seasonal mean temperature, temperature variations, and temperature shocks. Furthermore, we identify substantial heterogeneity in the impact across countries with varying income levels, age structures, and education levels. Finally, by comparing the baseline model with a long-difference model, we demonstrate that long-term adaptation may not significantly mitigate the impact of global warming on obesity in temperate zones.