Determining acceptable risk levels in earthquake disasters: insights from Chinese Mainland

IF 3.8 2区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, GEOLOGICAL
Cheng Miao, Mingtao Ding
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Abstract

The establishment of acceptable risk standards serves as a crucial connection between earthquake disaster risk assessment and risk management. Currently, there lacks a standardized criterion for determining the acceptable level of risk pertaining to earthquake disasters. To establish a standardized system of acceptable risk of earthquake disaster, the data of disaster-affected toll, death toll, and direct economic losses resulting from earthquakes disaster with MS ≥ 5.0 in Chinese Mainland between 1991 and 2020 are utilized. These data are employed to construct the acceptable life risk F–N curve (the accumulated probability F of annual death toll ≥ N—death toll N), the acceptable economic risk F–D curve (the accumulated probability F of annual direct economic losses ≥ D—direct economic losses), and the acceptable comprehensive risk F–L curve (the accumulated probability F with earthquake occurrence of annual disaster degree ≥ L—disaster degree). Then, the acceptable risk level of earthquake disasters with MS5.0–5.9, MS6.0–6.9, MS ≥ 7.0, and MS ≥ 5.0 are determined. Moreover, the classification and consistency of acceptable types of earthquake disaster comprehensive risk, life risk and economic risk in the past 30 years are compared. Through analysis, the acceptable life risk, acceptable economic risk, and acceptable comprehensive risk criteria of earthquake disasters with MS5.0–5.9, MS6.0–6.9, MS ≥ 7.0, and MS ≥ 5.0 in Chinese Mainland are obtained. It is found that the comprehensive risk of earthquake disasters with different magnitudes is mainly at an unacceptable level, while the main types that are consistent with life risk and economic risk are tolerable level and acceptable level, respectively. The research results can provide more comprehensive theoretical data and practical basis for the effective implementation of earthquake disaster risk management.

Abstract Image

确定地震灾害中可接受的风险水平:中国大陆的启示
建立可接受的风险标准是地震灾害风险评估和风险管理之间的重要联系。目前,地震灾害可接受风险水平的确定缺乏统一的标准。为建立地震灾害可接受风险的标准体系,本文利用 1991-2020 年中国大陆 MS≥5.0 地震灾害的受灾人数、死亡人数和直接经济损失数据,构建了地震灾害可接受风险的生命值。利用这些数据构建了可接受生命风险 F-N 曲线(年死亡人数≥N-死亡人数 N 的累积概率 F)、可接受经济风险 F-D 曲线(年直接经济损失≥D-直接经济损失的累积概率 F)和可接受综合风险 F-L 曲线(年灾害度≥L-灾害度的地震发生累积概率 F)。然后,确定 MS5.0-5.9、MS6.0-6.9、MS≥7.0、MS≥5.0 的地震灾害可接受风险等级。此外,还比较了近 30 年地震灾害综合风险、生命风险和经济风险可接受类型的划分和一致性。通过分析,得出中国大陆 MS5.0-5.9、MS6.0-6.9、MS≥7.0、MS≥5.0 地震灾害的可接受生命风险、可接受经济风险和可接受综合风险标准。研究发现,不同震级地震灾害的综合风险主要处于不可接受水平,而与生命风险和经济风险相一致的主要类型分别为可容忍水平和可接受水平。研究成果可为有效实施地震灾害风险管理提供较为全面的理论数据和实践依据。
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来源期刊
Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering
Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering 工程技术-地球科学综合
CiteScore
8.90
自引率
19.60%
发文量
263
审稿时长
7.5 months
期刊介绍: Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering presents original, peer-reviewed papers on research related to the broad spectrum of earthquake engineering. The journal offers a forum for presentation and discussion of such matters as European damaging earthquakes, new developments in earthquake regulations, and national policies applied after major seismic events, including strengthening of existing buildings. Coverage includes seismic hazard studies and methods for mitigation of risk; earthquake source mechanism and strong motion characterization and their use for engineering applications; geological and geotechnical site conditions under earthquake excitations; cyclic behavior of soils; analysis and design of earth structures and foundations under seismic conditions; zonation and microzonation methodologies; earthquake scenarios and vulnerability assessments; earthquake codes and improvements, and much more. This is the Official Publication of the European Association for Earthquake Engineering.
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