Michelle L. L’Heureux, Daniel S. Harnos, Emily Becker, Brian Brettschneider, Mingyue Chen, Nathaniel C. Johnson, Arun Kumar, Michael K. Tippett
{"title":"How Well Do Seasonal Climate Anomalies Match Expected El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Impacts?","authors":"Michelle L. L’Heureux, Daniel S. Harnos, Emily Becker, Brian Brettschneider, Mingyue Chen, Nathaniel C. Johnson, Arun Kumar, Michael K. Tippett","doi":"10.1175/bams-d-23-0252.1","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Did the strong 2023–24 El Niño live up to the hype? While climate prediction is inherently probabilistic, many users compare El Niño events against a deterministic map of expected impacts (e.g., wetter or drier regions). Here, using this event as a guide, we show that no El Niño perfectly matches the ideal image and that observed anomalies will only partially match what was anticipated. In fact, the degree to which the climate anomalies match the expected ENSO impacts tends to scale with the strength of the event. The 2023–24 event generally matched well with ENSO expectations around the United States. However, this will not always be the case, as the analysis shows larger deviations from the historical ENSO pattern of impacts are commonplace, with some climate variables more prone to inconsistencies (e.g., temperature) than others (e.g., precipitation). Users should incorporate this inherent uncertainty in their risk and decision-making analysis.","PeriodicalId":9464,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","volume":"80 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.9000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-23-0252.1","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Abstract Did the strong 2023–24 El Niño live up to the hype? While climate prediction is inherently probabilistic, many users compare El Niño events against a deterministic map of expected impacts (e.g., wetter or drier regions). Here, using this event as a guide, we show that no El Niño perfectly matches the ideal image and that observed anomalies will only partially match what was anticipated. In fact, the degree to which the climate anomalies match the expected ENSO impacts tends to scale with the strength of the event. The 2023–24 event generally matched well with ENSO expectations around the United States. However, this will not always be the case, as the analysis shows larger deviations from the historical ENSO pattern of impacts are commonplace, with some climate variables more prone to inconsistencies (e.g., temperature) than others (e.g., precipitation). Users should incorporate this inherent uncertainty in their risk and decision-making analysis.
期刊介绍:
The Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS) is the flagship magazine of AMS and publishes articles of interest and significance for the weather, water, and climate community as well as news, editorials, and reviews for AMS members.