Using Human Resources Data to Predict Turnover of Community Mental Health Employees: Prediction and Interpretation of Machine Learning Methods

Abstract

This study used machine learning (ML) to predict mental health employees' turnover in the following 12 months using human resources data in a community mental health centre. The data contain 621 employees' information (e.g., demographics, job information and client information served by employees) hired between 2011 and 2021 (56.5% turned over during the study period). Six ML methods (i.e., logistic regression, elastic net, random forest [RF], gradient boosting machine [GBM], neural network and support vector machine) were used to predict turnover, along with graphical and statistical tools to interpret predictive relationship patterns and potential interactions. The result suggests that RF and GBM led to better prediction according to specificity, sensitivity and area under the curve (>0.8). The turnover predictors (e.g., past work years, work hours, wage, age, exempt status, educational degree, marital status and employee type) were identified, including those that may be unique to the mental health employee population (e.g., training hours and the proportion of clients with schizophrenia diagnosis). It also revealed nonlinear and nonmonotonic predictive relationships (e.g., wage and employee age), as well as interaction effects, such that past work years interact with other variables in turnover prediction. The study indicates that ML methods showed the predictability of mental health employee turnover using human resources data. The identified predictors and the nonlinear and interactive relationships shed light on developing new predictive models for turnover that warrant further investigations.