GIS-based statistical analysis for landslide susceptibility evaluation and zonation mapping: A case from Blue Nile Gorge, Gohatsion-Dejen road corridor, Central Ethiopia

Abstract

Globally, landslides in mountainous regions are considered to be major geo-hazards which are frequent, intensive and devastating that result in extensive destruction to people's lives, land, property and other infrastructure. To mitigate landslide-associated risks, identification, evaluation, and delineation of susceptible areas is essential for proper strategic planning and management. The present study was conducted in Blue Nile Gorge in the highlands of Central Ethiopia, about 185 km from Addis-Ababa, along the Gohatsion-Dejen road corridor. Landslides are frequently reported in the study area, particularly during the rainy season. The objective of the present study was to evaluate landslide susceptibility and to prepare a landslide susceptibility zoning (LSZ) map. For this purpose a statistical information value (IV) model was used that took into account various factors including slope material, elevation, slope, aspect, land-use and land-cover, proximity to the road, and proximity to streams. Each of these factors was classified based on different conditions like landslide concentration, topography, geology, and land-use and land-cover types. The landslide inventory mapping was conducted through field observations and Google Earth image interpretation. Later, the influence of each causative factor on past landslides was used to calculate their respective IVs. The statistical IVs were further used to evaluate the landslide susceptibility. The LSZ map produced from this study shows that 22.3 % of the study area falls into a very high susceptibility zone, 23.1 % into a high, 18.8 % in moderate, 23.1 % into a low, and the remaining 12.8 % into a low susceptibility zone. The LSZ map was validated using the Receiver Operating Characteristics Curve (ROC), landslide density index (LDI), and past landslide data. All validation methods showed acceptable results. The prepared LSZ map can be used for safe land-use planning of the area.