On the Linear Probability Model as binary choice random utility model

IF 2.8 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Paolo Delle Site, Janak Parmar
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The econometrics of the Linear Probability Model (LPM) cast as binary choice random utility model and where probabilities are constrained in the [0,1] interval is unexplored. The paper fills this gap. Assumptions are identified under which constrained maximum likelihood estimators exist and are unique, consistent and asymptotically normal. A consistent estimator of the covariance matrix is provided. Statistics that can be used to evaluate the prediction validity of binary choice models are reviewed. With income independent choices, the LPM has the merit of closed-form welfare change measure for the sub-population of consumers shifting from one alternative to the other. Two datasets illustrate the theoretical insights. One from the Swiss Mobility and Transport Microcensus related to choices between teleworking and commuting, one from the German Socio-Economic Panel related to add-on health insurance subscription. The signs and statistical significance at 5% level of the coefficients are concordant across LPM, Logit and Probit. Model prioritization based on prediction validity is data specific and dependent on the statistics used.

论作为二元选择随机效用模型的线性概率模型
线性概率模型(LPM)被视为二元选择随机效用模型,且概率被限制在 [0,1] 区间内,但该模型的计量经济学尚未得到研究。本文填补了这一空白。本文确定了一些假设条件,在这些假设条件下,受限最大似然估计值是存在的,并且是唯一的、一致的和渐近正态的。提供了协方差矩阵的一致估计器。回顾了可用于评估二元选择模型预测有效性的统计数据。在收入与选择无关的情况下,LPM 的优点是可以对从一种选择转向另一种选择的消费者子群体进行闭式福利变化测量。两个数据集说明了理论上的见解。一个数据集来自瑞士流动性和交通微观普查,涉及远程办公和通勤之间的选择;另一个数据集来自德国社会经济小组,涉及附加医疗保险订阅。在 LPM、Logit 和 Probit 模型中,系数的符号和在 5%水平上的统计显著性是一致的。基于预测有效性的模型优先排序与数据有关,并取决于所使用的统计数据。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.10
自引率
12.50%
发文量
31
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